703
FXUS61 KAKQ 231414
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1014 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds south along the Mid-Atlantic coast early
this week. Meanwhile, a series of shortwave troughs will slide
across the region in northwest flow aloft bringing on and off
rain chances. Seasonal temperatures are expected to start this
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1015 AM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

-Cloudy, but overall pleasant day with highs in the 70s.

-A chance for showers tonight, especially west of I-95.

Surface high pressure over Atlantic Canada continues to ridge SW
along the Mid-Atlantic coast. Meanwhile, persistent low
pressure well offshore is finally making progress on its journey
south. Aloft, a ridge is nudging into the local area. Through
the day today, the ridge axis aloft will slide in overhead while
the sfc high continues to wedge itself down the coast.

Mostly cloudy to overcast across the Piedmont this morning and
mostly sunny toward the coast. Temperatures range from the mid
60s NW to the lower 70s SE. A light shower or sprinkle is
possible across the Piedmont late this morning. Otherwise,
mainlydry elsewhere. Clouds will stick around through the day,
especially inland. Due to the thicker cloud cover, temps will
run on the cooler side with highs in the low to mid 70s. Warmer
in the east with highs in the mid-upper 70s. Onshore flow
continues today, so immediate coastal areas will also run on the
cooler side. Regarding precip, the daytime hours should largely
remain dry, but cannot completely rule out a stray shower on
the western edge of the FA. A weak shortwave trough will travel
up the ridge aloft tonight, which may act to trigger showers in
the area. However, high pressure at the coast will act to limit
precip, especially E of I-95. Have Chc PoPs entering the western
counties late this evening and sticking around through the
night. Lows tonight will be in the low-mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Cloudy with multiple chances for showers, primarily west of
  I-95.

The synoptic pattern for the Tues-Wed period has become clearer
given the global models coming into better alignment. Tues will be
defined by the ridge aloft amplifying as it nudges offshore and a
trough deepening over the plains. Going into Wed, an UL gets closed
off from the trough and shifts S as a ridge amplifies over the
western CONUS. At the sfc, high pressure from the NE will remain in
control locally while a front approaches from the NW. Shortwaves
will eject out of the trough Tues (and less so Wed), creating
opportunities for precip. Showers will generally stick to western
portions of the area given high pressure in place. Current forecast
has the highest chances for precip during the Tues night period.
PoPs during this time are in the 50-60% range W of I-95 and in the
20-45% range to the E. Mostly cloudy to overcast conditions will
persist through this period. Highs on Tuesday range from the upper
60s in the NW to the mid 70s in the SE. Lows Tues night in the mid
60s. Increased thicknesses will allow for slightly warmer conditions
on Wed with highs in the mid 70s NW and around 80 in the SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 400 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Multiple low-end chances for precip late next week into early
  next weekend with low confidence in regard to the eventual
  evolution of a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico.

The start of the long term period will be shaped by what the
potential tropical system in the Gulf does. Confidence in this storm
forming is increasing, but it is still too early to determine
exactly how this storm would interact with the mid-latitude jet
later in the week. The trend so far is holding onto the system
staying well to the SW of the local area while low pressure well to
the N pushes SE off the New England coast. There is decent agreement
between global models that moisture from the system will make it
into at least the SW portion of the FA sometime Thurs night-Fri
night. Have increased to Chc PoPs during this time period. May also
see additional showers over the weekend, but uncertainty is high.

Regarding temps, highs on Thurs are forecast to be in the low-mid
80s, mid-70s to around 80s on Fri, 70s for Sat and Sun. Lows getting
progressively cooler through the period, starting in the upper 60s
Thurs night, then getting down to the 50s-low 60s over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 630 AM EDT Monday...

Mainly VFR conditions prevail across the area early this
morning, with some spotty lower CIGs well inland and patchy
ground fog over interior NE NC. For the main terminals, will
include a TEMPO group for MVFR CIGs at RIC/PHF later this
morning. Winds today will be easterly at 5-10kt. Mostly cloudy
tonight, with a chc for showers (especially inland), and MVFR to
IFR flight restrictions moving in from the W overnight.

Tue-Wed will see scattered showers and a lot of cloud cover,
with a continued chc for mainly MVFR flight restrictions (with
some IFR possible well inland). Mainly dry Thu, then a higher
chc for showers returns Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 345 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for all coastal waters
through  Wednesday (primarily for seas).

- Persistent long period swells keep seas elevated throughout
this week.

-Northeast winds may become elevated next weekend.

A strong surface low pressure continues to linger far off the
eastern United States, with a strong high pressure (1022mb) over
north eastern Canada early this morning. As of 3:30 this morning
winds are gradually out of the east northeast around 10-15 kt with
occasional gusts in upwards of 20 kt. The winds today will stay
between 5-10 kts across the bay with occasional gusts up to 15 kt.
Across the ocean winds will be slightly higher with sustained winds
between 10-15 kt and occasional gusts in upwards of 20 kt. After
this afternoon winds will begin to diminish over all waters later
this evening. Winds remain sub SCA level (mainly SE) through Thu
before becoming NE Fri. Models are coming into better agreement
regarding an enhanced NE flow developing next weekend with SCA winds
possible. We will continue to monitor and see how this trends.

Throughout today waves across open waters will continue to build due
to the swell from the low pressure system far off the coast. Across
the bay waves are expected to be between 1-2ft(2-3 ft across the
lower bay and 3-4 ft across the mouth of the bay). The open ocean,
waves are expected to be between 4-6 ft throughout today and into late
this week. For now, have extended SCAs across the coastal waters
through Wednesday with future extensions likely. The SCA for the
mouth of the bay has been canceled at this time. However, model
guidance has suggested an extremely marginal SCA conditions later
Today. As of now confidence is too low to warrant an extension or an
additional SCA for this zone at this time. Model and real time
trends will continue to be monitored.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 345 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Long duration coastal flood event continues across the region
  (see section below for info on this being a record at a few
  sites).

- Water levels today are expected to be similar to Sunday. At
  least minor flooding is likely to persist through Tuesday,
  possibly into Wednesday in portions of the mid/upper Bay.
  Various headlines remain in effect (see latest CFWAKQ for
  details).

Tidal departures continue to average +1.5 ft to +2.0 ft above
astro tide levels across the region. The high tides later today
into tonight look to reach levels similar to what occurred
Sunday aftn/evening. Again, the most widespread moderate
flooding (with local major flooding at a few places) will be
over the mid/upper Bay, including the tidal Potomac/Rappahannock
and the MD eastern shore through late this evening. These
locations still are expected to see additional moderate coastal
flooding continue into Tuesday as winds veer to the E-SE and
long period easterly swell remains in place over the ocean,
allowing water trapped in the Bay to shift northward. As such,
Coastal Flood Warnings remain in effect through Tuesday
evening.

Areas to the south across the lower Bay/tidal James and York rivers
will be more marginal, with peak water levels mostly in the high end
minor flood to locally moderate thresholds. However, given that
tidal anomalies remain fairly consistent, the high tide this
aftn/evening should be comparable to what occurred on Sunday, so
will maintain these Coastal Flood Warnings here through the late
aftn/evening timeframe. Have mentioned in the CFW the likelihood
at seeing additional flooding Tuesday (most likely minor
flooding).

Norfolk and Chesapeake remain in a Coastal Flood Advisory
through Tuesday (as opposed to a Coastal Flood Warning) given
that the Elizabeth River and Sewell`s Point should remain below
moderate flood stage. A Coastal Flood Advisory also remains
across the Atlantic side of the Maryland Eastern Shore with
Ocean City looking to remain in minor flood stage through this
afternoon.

Consecutive high tides reaching at least Minor Flood with this
event:

- Lewisetta (P.O.R. since 1979): 13 (with several more to
  come), previous record was 8 in Oct 2021, Oct 2019, Oct 2015.

- Cambridge (P.O.R. since 1980): 7 (with several more to come),
  previous record was 5 in Oct 2021, Oct 2019, Sep 2018, Oct
  2011.

Consecutive high tides reaching at least Moderate Flood with
this event: (this event is unlikely to break records listed).

- Lewisetta (P.O.R. since 1979): 3 (so far), ***record is 7 in
  Oct 2015***

- Cambridge (P.O.R. since 1980): 1 (so far), ***record is 4 in
  Oct 2019***

In addition, a High rip current risk is in effect today and will
likely continue through at least Tuesday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Coastal Flood Warning until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for MDZ021>023.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
     MDZ024-025.
NC...Coastal Flood Warning until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ102.
VA...Coastal Flood Warning until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for VAZ098.
     Coastal Flood Warning until midnight EDT Tuesday night for
     VAZ075-077.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 10 PM EDT Tuesday for VAZ076-078-
     085-521-522.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 PM EDT Tuesday for VAZ083-518-
     520.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for VAZ084-
     086-523>525.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for VAZ089-
     090-093-096.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EDT Tuesday for VAZ095-097.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ099-
     100.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ/AM
SHORT TERM...AM
LONG TERM...AM
AVIATION...AM/LKB
MARINE...HET/LKB/RMM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...