403
FXUS61 KAKQ 220713
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
313 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds south along the Mid-Atlantic coast into
early next week. Meanwhile, a series of shortwave troughs will
slide across the region in northwest flow aloft bringing on and
off rain chances. Seasonal temperatures are expected to start
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 310 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Message:

- A backdoor cold front brings cloudy conditions and isolated
  showers.

Persistent low pressure continues to spin well offshore to the NE
this morning. Meanwhile, a weak backdoor cold front is draped across
far northeastern portions of the FA. Aloft, NW flow continues over
the FA with the trough offshore and a broad ridge to the W. There
are some spotty showers associated with the front which are located
across portions of the Eastern Shore as of latest radar. These will
shift SW toward the Northern Neck/southern Eastern Shore area
through the early morning hours. Obs are indicating some fog, but
this is mostly limited to the NE portion of the area so far. May
need a targeted Dense Fog Advisory for Louisa and adjacent counties
as we get closer to sunrise.

The backdoor front will drift SW through the day bringing cloudy
conditions and isolated showers. Have kept PoPs to 15-20% for most
of the day. Low clouds will persist over much of the area for most
of the day, but may start to scatter out some closer to sunset,
especially closer to the coast. Highs today will range from the mid-
70s in the NE to around 80 in the SW. Lows tonight will be on either
side of 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 335 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Isolated shower chances for Sunday with a backdoor cold front

- Pleasant start to the week with dry weather and highs in the
  70s

The backdoor cold front is forecast to cross into the local
area early Sunday morning and lingers in the area through the
day. Isolated/widely scattered showers will accompany the front,
so slight chance PoPs have been maintained in the NE early then
progressing SW through the day. High temperatures will depend
on the location of the front through the day, but generally
expect low-mid 70s in the NE and around 80F in the SW. Mostly
cloudy to overcast conditions are expected across most of the
area.

The ridge axis aloft shifts toward the E coast Monday.
Meanwhile, surface low pressure offshore finally makes some
progress to the SE and farther offshore. Monday should be
pleasant, albeit a bit cloudy. Highs will be in the low-mid 70s
across northern counties and upper 70s S of I-64. Lows Mon night
will be around 60. Another shortwave trough approaches from the
NW Tuesday as high pressure remains centered NE of the region
with the surface ridge axis extending SW along the Mid-Atlantic
coast. This will bring a chc of showers inland. High
temperatures range from the lower 70s NW to the upper 70s SE,
after morning lows in the lower to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 335 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Multiple low-end chances for precip next week.

Moisture will gradually slide back into the area next week
around the edge of a ridge offshore, and ahead of a trough well
to the W. Confidence in the forecast for midweek and after is
low, but there are daily rain chances with increased moisture.
Temperatures will gradually warm a bit as thicknesses rise with
the ridge pushing up the coastline. Highs are forecast to be in
the mid 70s to around 80 degrees. Lows will mainly be in the
60s.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Sunday...

Flight restrictions, primarily MVFR, are likely across all
terminals during the 06z TAF period as a backdoor cold front
drops across the FA. RIC will likely be the first impacted,
dropping into IFR within the next few hours. While low CIGs are
the primary concern, nearby obs in the area have been showing
some fog as well. The remaining terminals drop into MVFR later
this morning (09-12z) as the lower CIGs spread E and S. MVFR
likely persists until late morning or early afternoon near the
coast and into the late afternoon inland. SE winds will become
NE behind the front. A few showers are expected along the front.
Have not included these in the TAFs due to low coverage of
precip/low confidence in terminal impacts.

There is a potential for another round of lower CIGs late Sun
night/early Mon morning. Otherwise, mainly dry and VFR Mon.
Minimal chcs of showers are forecast Tue through Thu.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 405 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for all coastal waters
  through Monday (primarily for seas).

- Winds increase Sunday, but remain mainly sub-SCA. Waves may
  build to 4 ft late Sunday/Sunday night at the mouth of the
  Bay.

- Persistent long period swells keep seas elevated into the
  middle of next week.

Sfc low pressure (~1007mb) lingers well off the southern New
England and NJ coast, with high pressure centered well to the N,
across NewFoundland/Labrador. SE winds ~10 kt (10-15 kt across
the bay) continue into this evening, diminishing to 5-10 kt
overnight. Winds become E 10-15 kt with perhaps a few gusts to
around 20 kt Sun behind a weak area of low pressure which moves
SE across VA and into E NC. Winds become NE 15-20 kt across the
coastal waters and lower bay (15 kt with a few gusts to around
20 kt for the rest of the bay) Sun evening into early Sun night
before diminishing to 10-15 kt. Cannot rule out a few gusts up
to 25 kt across the northern coastal waters. Waves and seas were
1-2 ft (2-3 ft at the mouth of the bay) and 4-5 ft respectively
this afternoon. Expect seas to build to 5-7 ft Sun night into
Mon, potentially remaining elevated through mid week. As such,
have maintained SCAs for the coastal waters until Mon evening.
Will note that these SCAs will need to be extended in future
updates. Confidence is still too low for any headlines (outside
of 3-4 ft waves at the mouth of the Ches Bay).

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 400 PM Saturday...

- Key Message: Long duration coastal flood event continues
  across the region, with flooding likely to persist through mid
  week. Various headlines remain in effect (see latest CFWAKQ
  for details).

Tidal departures have risen slightly over the past 12 hrs, with
some areas now >+1.5 ft above astro tide levels. This
afternoon`s high tide cycle is the higher of the daily cycle
(astronomically), which will lead to water levels into moderate
flood thresholds for most sites in the mid/upper Bay, as well as
the VA eastern shore. Va Beach and Currituck, NC peaked at right
around moderate flood stage. The high tides Sunday and Monday
afternoon look to be slightly higher than this afternoon`s high
tide. As such, expect additional rounds of moderate coastal
flooding through Monday evening. Portions of the upper bay may
see moderate coastal flooding continue into Tuesday. For now,
have issued Coastal Flood Warnings for most of the Chesapeake
Bay, Virginia Beach, Currituck, and Eastern Shore (apart from
around Ocean City, MD) through Monday evening. Confidence was
too low at Yorktown to extend the Coastal Flood Warning beyond
Sunday, but this may need to be extended in future updates. Have
opted to leave Norfolk and Chesapeake in a Coastal Flood
Advisory (as opposed to a Coastal Flood Warning) given that the
Elizabeth River and Swell`s Point look to remain below moderate
flood stage. However, if tides trend up, they may need to be
added to the warning. A Coastal Flood Advisory remains across
the Atlantic side of the Maryland Eastern Shore with Ocean City
looking to remain in minor flood stage through Monday afternoon.
Additional coastal flooding looks to continue into mid week.

In addition, a High rip current risk is in effect through
Sunday and will likely be extended into Monday as well.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Coastal Flood Warning until midnight EDT Monday night for
     MDZ021>023.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT Monday for MDZ024-025.
NC...Coastal Flood Warning until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ102.
VA...Coastal Flood Warning until midnight EDT Monday night for
     VAZ075-077.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for VAZ098.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 10 PM EDT Monday for VAZ076-078-
     085-521-522.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for VAZ083-518-
     520.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for
     VAZ084-086-523.
     Coastal Flood Warning from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this
     evening for VAZ084-086-523>525.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     VAZ089-090-093-096-524-525.
     Coastal Flood Warning from 11 AM this morning to 10 PM EDT
     Monday for VAZ089-090-093-096.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for VAZ095-097.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 8 PM EDT Monday for VAZ099-100.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJZ/TMG
NEAR TERM...AM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/AM
LONG TERM...AJZ/AM
AVIATION...AM
MARINE...LKB/MAM/RMM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...