748
FXUS61 KAKQ 211350
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
950 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains over the Mid-Atlantic region today. A
summerlike pattern develops by the middle of the week as high
pressure settles off the Southeast coast. A cold front
approaches from the northwest Thursday with daily chances for
showers and thunderstorms to end the week and into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 945 AM EDT Tuesday...

The last of the low clouds will dissipate along the coast
within the next hour or so leaving a mostly sunny sky today for
all areas. High temperatures ranging from the upper 60s to lower
70s along the coast with light onshore flow, to the lower 80s
well inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 335 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Dry Tuesday and Wednesday with a noticeable warming trend.

- An approaching cold front brings chances showers and
  thunderstorms Thursday, a few of which could be strong to
  severe.

High pressure nudges offshore tonight. Some patchy fog/stratus
is possible, especially toward the coast, with less coverage
than early this morning. Otherwise, mostly clear tonight with
lows in the mid 50s to around 60F. High pressure settles off the
Southeast coast Wednesday into Thursday. More summerlike
conditions arrive as 850mb temperatures rise to 16-17C, which
will support highs in the upper 80s to around 90F away from the
coast both days. A lighter wind, still SSE will keep highs in
the mid 70s to around 80F along the coast Wednesday, with highs
into the upper 70s to mid 80s Thursday along the coast as the
wind becomes more southwesterly. Meanwhile, dewpoints are
expected to be in the lower to mid 60s Wednesday, and then mid
to upper 60s by Thursday. Mild, mostly clear, and modestly humid
Wednesday night with lows in the mid to upper 60s. Dry
Wednesday through midday Thursday. A shortwave trough and cold
front will approach from the NW by Thursday afternoon. This will
bring a trigger for showers/tstms into a moderately unstable
airmass with strong surface heating. This combined with 500mb
flow of 30-40kt could result in a few stronger to severe tstms.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 335 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

- Remaining warm, but unsettled, for Friday into the weekend.

The cold front stalls in vicinity of the Mid-Atlantic region
Thursday night into the weekend and early next week as it become
aligned parallel to WSW flow aloft. There is a potential for a
series of shortwave troughs to track through the mid/upper level
flow bringing daily chances of mainly afternoon/evening
showers/tstms. Friday still should be rather hot with highs in
the mid to upper 80s, with high temperatures trending down to
the lower 80s Saturday and lower to mid 80s Sunday and Monday.
Low temperatures will primarily be in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 710 AM EDT Tuesday...

The last of the low clouds will dissipate along the coast by
15z with VFR conditions after that. Winds will remain light
through the 12Z TAF period. High pressure becomes centered
immediately offshore tonight with some patchy stratus/fog
possible, especially toward the coast.

Dry Wednesday through most of Thursday with prevailing VFR
conditions. A cold front approaches from the NW later Thursday
aftn bringing a chc of showers/tstms. This front lingers over
the area Friday into Saturday with a chc of mainly aftn/evening
showers/tstms continuing.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 355 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Moderate rip current risk expected for the southern beaches today.

- Generally quiet marine conditions continuing for much of the
week.

Early this morning, sfc high pressure was centered right over
the area. Winds were NE, E or SE 5-10kt across the waters. Waves
were 1-2 ft and seas were 2-4 ft. Relatively benign conditions
will prevail on the marine side for most of the week, as high
pressure will eventually slide out to sea. Winds will become E
or SE at 5-10kt this aftn into this evening, then will be SSW
5-15kt later tonight into Thu night. A weak cold front will drop
into and across the waters Thu evening into Fri morning,
bringing a chance of sctd showers and storms for Thu aftn into
early Fri morning.

Expecting a moderate rip current risk for the srn beaches today,
with low rip current risk for the nrn beaches. Low rip current
risk for all areas on Wed.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 335 AM EDT Tuesday...

Water is gradually moving downstream on the Nottoway River,
with Sebrell still in minor flood stage this morning. The river
will stay in flood this morning before falling below flood
stage by this evening. Rainfall from the weekend may cause
localized rises in other rivers, but all remaining sites should
stay below action stage.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...AJZ/JDM
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...JKP/TMG
HYDROLOGY...AKQ