994
FXUS61 KAKQ 131936
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
336 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Another round of showers and storms returns to the region late
tonight into Tuesday, with periods of rain continuing through
Wednesday. Warmer with additional showers and storms late
Friday into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 335 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Warmer and dry today.

- Clouds increase gradually late this afternoon and thicken
  this evening with precip chances ramping up after midnight.

Latest analysis reveals 1020+mb high pressure off the mid-
Atlantic coast. To the west, an upper trough continues to slowly
trundle east over the middle Missouri Valley. This system, is
also dragging a warm front, which extends along and just inland
of the Gulf coast this afternoon. Mid to high clouds continue to
push into the southern half of the area this afternoon ahead of
the approaching warm front. A weakening convective complex
continues to slide just north of the front over S AL/GA, with a
second area of showers and storms firing up over the western
Gulf coast as of this writing. Overrunning moisture from this
feature will lift quickly NNE this evening, reaching the local
area overnight into the day on Tuesday.

Locally, it will be dry to start tonight, albeit with increasing
and lowering clouds as PWs slowly ratchet up and WAA aloft
ensues. Rain chances increase rapidly across the SW half of the
area after midnight as high pressure slides farther offshore
and a deeper slug of overrunning moisture arrives. Early
morning lows will be mild in the upper 50s to low 60s with
increasing clouds and low-level moisture.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 335 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Rain develops Tuesday with showers and a few thunderstorms.
  Widespread severe weather is not expected, but locally heavy
  rain possible Tuesday night along the coast.

- Showers and a few thunderstorms linger on Wednesday before
  moving offshore overnight.

- Drying out on Thursday, though clouds and a few spotty
  showers persist.

Rain chances ramp up through the morning Tuesday, reaching the
coast by mid to late afternoon. Still looks as if we remain on
the cool side of the system for much of the day, as weak WAA
aloft keeps clouds in place through the day. Those resulting
weak kinematics and meager instability are still progged by CAMs
and have accordingly removed thunder wording for all but the far
SW corner of the area through tomorrow afternoon. However, will
maintain a thunder chance Tuesday evening, extending east to
southside Hampton Roads and NE NC Tuesday evening.

Highs likely don`t get out of the 60s across portions of the
Piedmont, while areas to the east see temps in the low to mid
70s. QPF through Tue night between 3/4" and 1" of additional
rainfall, with locally higher totals possible. Secondary low
pressure looks to develop across the western Carolinas Tuesday
morning, with that low lifting a warm front across the region
Tuesday evening. While IVT/PW fields continue to show the
heaviest rainfall remaining just offshore, higher PW air does
lift along the coast. CAMs continue to highlight the best
chances for periods of locally heavy rainfall will be across
this same coastal area Tue evening across the SE, into later Tue
night/early Wed over the eastern shore.

Rain briefly tapers off Wednesday morning, especially across
the S/SE, as mid-levels briefly dry out. However, model
soundings continue to show saturated low-levels persist through
the morning hours on Wed. Thus, expect light rain or drizzle
Wed morning hangs on under continued overcast/substantial cloud
cover, as the closed low to the west opens up and crosses just
south of the region. Precipitation character remains a bit more
stratiform through the day for most, with the 12z/13 CAMs
keeping a majority of convection to our south. However, chances
for storms do increase a little bit over E and NE NC, perhaps
extending NE into Hampton Roads by afternoon as the weakening
upper low approaches. This allows for a period of increased
deep- layer shear (25-35 kt) along with some decent instability.
For that reason, will keep thunder wording in place for Wed
afternoon for now.

A bit of a transition day weatherwise for Thursday. Drier
conditions overall in subsidence behind the departing trough.
Will likely see some lingering clouds in NW flow aloft, and an
isolated shower or two cannot be completely ruled out by
afternoon, hence the lingering 20% PoP inland. Highs Thu once
again in the mid/upper 70s well inland to lower/mid 70s along
the coast. Lows Thu night range through the 50s to around 60
degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 335 PM Monday...

Key Messages:

-Continued warm late this week with increasing chances for showers
 and storms later Friday into the weekend.

Shortwave ridging briefly rests over the area Friday morning.
Another system approaches late on Friday with another chance
for scattered showers and storms. 12z guidance remains rather
mixed with guidance still having trouble resolving the next
southern stream wave lifting out of the plains. Have maintained
slight to chance PoPs each day, highest during typical diurnal
(late aftn/Evening) timing. Certainly doesn`t look like a
washout for any of these days by any stretch. As guidance gets
into better agreement, expect this will become a bit clearer in
the coming day or two.

Remaining near climo late week, with temps at or above climo
through the weekend into early next week. Highs generally in
the 70s to low 80s. Lows range through the 50s to low 60s
coastal sections.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1205 PM EDT Monday...

VFR conditions prevail for 18z TAF period. Winds ~10 kt out of
the SSE near the coast and generally S 5-10 kt inland. Mostly
sunny/SKC this afternoon, with increasing high clouds through
the evening. Showers will also return late tonight/early Tuesday
but should remain west of the main terminals through 12z
Tuesday.

Outlook: Low pressure returns Tuesday into Wednesday bringing
showers, periodic flight restrictions, and possibly a few tstms.
Conditions gradually improve Thursday into Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 335 PM EDT Monday...

Key messages:

-SCAs are in effect for the Ches Bay through late tonight for a
brief period of elevated S to SE winds.

-Additional SCAs are likely ahead of a low pressure system Tuesday
afternoon into Wednesday morning

High pressure is centered just off the Mid-Atlantic coast this
afternoon. Winds have shifted to the SE as of latest obs and are
picking up to 10-15kt with a few gusts to 20kt. Have noticed a gusts
of 20kt+ becoming more frequent in the mouth/lower bay, so have
started the SCA for these zones a couple of hours early. The upper
bay will go into effect later this evening. Winds will temporarily
drop below SCA criteria late tonight/early Tuesday, but additional
SCAs are likely needed starting Tues afternoon. A low pressure
system will approach the area on Tuesday before crossing the area
from west to east late Tuesday night/early Wednesday. The pressure
gradient will increase ahead of the system by Tue aftn/evening,
allowing S winds to increase to around 20kt (and remain elevated
through most of Tue night). Local wind probs continue to show an 80-
100% chc of 18kt winds on the bay Tue night. Probs of 25kt gusts
have increased for the southern coastal waters and lower bay, which
are now showing 50-75% Tues night. Therefore, SCAs appear likely for
the bay and ocean (and perhaps the Lower James/Currituck Sound) with
this system. Breezy, but sub-SCA, northerly winds are expected
behind the low through Thurs.

Afternoon buoy obs reflect 3ft seas and waves of 1-3ft. Seas will
increase to ~4ft tonight and remain at 3-4ft through tomorrow. Seas
increase to 4-5ft Tues night as winds come up and remain elevated
into Wed night. Waves will be 1-3ft tonight, falling back to 1-2ft
in the morning. Waves come back up to 1-3ft Tuesday afternoon with
4ft waves likely in the lower bay Tues night. Back to 1-2ft once
winds drop off Wed.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ630-631.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ632-634.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/RHR
LONG TERM...MAM/RHR
AVIATION...MAM/RHR
MARINE...AM/ERI