330
FXUS61 KAKQ 201849
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
249 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure settles over the region today, favoring dry
weather. A summerlike pattern develops by the middle of the
week. A cold front approaches from the northwest Thursday with
daily chances for showers and storms to end the week and into
the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 220 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Mild and dry this afternoon with clouds continuing to clear
  out through the evening

- Lows in the low-mid 50s tonight with fog formation possible
  across the entire forecast area

High pressure is settling in over the area this afternoon. Aloft, a
trough is pushing offshore and a strong ridge is building in behind
it. Clouds are finally scattering out over most of the area this
afternoon per latest satellite. Temps have warmed into the mid-70s
in the far western piedmont. Cloud cover is thicker through central
portions of the area, so temps are still in the low 70s. Onshore
flow is keeping temps near the coast in the upper 60s-low 70s. While
far western counties may still touch 80 later this afternoon, temps
in central portions of the area may slightly under-perform and
stick to the low 70s instead of the upper 70s. Overnight, temps
will cool into the low-mid 50s. Expecting cloud cover to build
back in from the east overnight, but should remain scattered
over the western half. Fog formation is also expected across the
entire area overnight. While the majority of the fog should be
patchy, there is the potential for areas of fog to become dense.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 255 AM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

- Dry Tuesday and Wednesday with a noticeable warming trend.

Relatively quiet conditions forecast for the first half of the week
as an UL ridge builds over the eastern CONUS and the sfc high over
Canada shifts south and offshore to our E/SE. Onshore flow will
continue through Tuesday, however, so coastal areas will remain
slightly cooler relative to inland locations to start. Tuesday will
have highs in the low-mid 80s inland and low-mid 70s at the coast.
Much warmer Wednesday with highs in the mid-upper 80s for most, with
upper 70s or lower 80s at the immediate coast. Lows will be in the
50s Tue night and 60s Wed night. Skies will average mostly
sunny/clear.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 255 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- A cold front crosses late in the week, bringing chances for
  showers and thunderstorms. A few storms could be strong to
  severe.

- Remaining warm, but unsettled, for Friday into the weekend.

The weather in the extended period looks to resemble a summerlike
pattern with diurnal chances for showers/storms. To start the
period, a potent trough will slide from the central Plains into the
Great Lakes region. At the surface, an associated cold front will
advance S/SE toward the region early Thursday. The guidance is in
decent agreement regarding the timing of the FROPA, with the latest
consensus favoring the later afternoon and early overnight period
Thursday. PoPs ramp up across the W/NW during the day and shift E/SE
into the evening. Generally, the GFS is a little slower than the
ECMWF. At least moderate surface-based instability is forecast
across the region in advance of the FROPA so thunderstorms look like
a decent bet. While still a few days away, the synoptic pattern
could favor some strong-severe storms given increasing mid-upper
level flow with the trough passing to to our N. Machine learning
methods are beginning to pick up on this potential so something to
keep an eye on. The area isn`t outlooked from SPC at this point.
Beyond this, the front looks to stall over NC and just S of the FA
as it becomes parallel to the mid-upper flow. Uncertainty grows for
Friday and the weekend as a shortwave slides through the OH River
Valley under a building ridge. At least some precip potential is
expected Friday, especially W of I-95. The degree of instability and
the placement of the sfc/upper features will dictate the
thunderstorm potential. At this time, will have the highest chances
for storms S and W of I-64. For those looking for a dry and
uneventful weekend weather-wise, next weekend doesn`t look to be
that. The remnant sfc boundary, lower sfc pressures, and moist,
southerly flow favors on and off showers and storms Saturday and
Sunday.

For temps, Thursday looks very warm or hot. Highs in the upper 80s
to around 90F inland and mid-upper 80s near the coast. With the
front weakening on its approach, Friday will only be slightly cooler
with highs in the low-mid 80s generally. The weekend temps won` be
as chilly as this past weekend, but still cooling off into the upper
70s or low 80s. Sunday may be a few degrees warmer. Overnight lows
will be in the 60s through the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Monday...

High pressure is settling into the area this afternoon. Skies
are gradually clearing out, but still seeing BKN-OVC at times at
RIC and ORF. Skies continue to clear out through this evening,
but clouds will linger immediately near the coast. Flight
restrictions likely return late tonight. There is enough
confidence in the formation of fog to include it in the 18z
TAFs. There is the potential for fog to become dense, but am not
certain yet how widespread dense fog will be. Also, low CIGs
will be possible along the coast. Winds are 5-10kt out of the NE
this afternoon, becoming variable/calm overnight. Winds will be
light and easterly tomorrow.

Outlook: Dry Tue and Wed w/ VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 245 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

-Moderate rip current risk expected for the southern beaches on
Tuesday.

- Generally quiet marine conditions continuing for much of the week.

High pressure continues to build into the local area this afternoon,
which is pushing an area of low pressure further southeast away from
our waters. Wind is generally E/NE at 8-12kt with a few gusts to
15kts. Afternoon seas are 3-4ft across the north with 4-5ft along
the southern coastal waters. Waves in the Bay remain around 1-2ft.
With relatively benign conditions expected on the marine side for
most of the week, expect seas and waves to persist at the
aforementioned levels, with perhaps the southern seas coming down to
3-4ft as well. The high pressure will slide offshore later this week
ahead of an incoming frontal system turning the winds more SSW, but
they should remain below SCA thresholds. The cold front will settle
into the region Thursday and into the weekend bringing a chance
of scattered showers and storms each day.

A high risk of rip currents continues for the rest of the day for
the southern beaches, with a moderate risk for the northern
beaches. Expecting the rip forecast for tomorrow to "come down"
to moderate for the southern beaches and low for the northern
beaches as the wind relaxes and nearshore waves gradually
subside.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 315 AM EDT Monday...

Water is gradually moving downstream on the Nottoway River,
with Sebrell in minor flood stage early this morning. The river
will likely stay in flood into Tuesday before falling below
flood stage later Tuesday. Rainfall from yesterday may cause
localized rises in other rivers, but all remaining sites should
stay below action stage.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 245 PM EDT Monday...

Another round of nuisance to minor tidal flooding is expected to
occur during the higher astronomical high tide tonight as tidal
anomalies remain 1.0-1.5ft above astronomical, particularly for the
middle Chesapeake Bay and tidal portions of the Rappahannock River
and southern shore of the tidal Potomac. Thus, a Coastal Flood
Statement has been issued for these locations, as well as the upper
James area, for tonight`s high tide cycle. A similar pattern will
continue through midweek as the higher astronomical high tides will
remain elevated over the next several days.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...AM
SHORT TERM...AM/SW
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...AM
MARINE...AJZ/JKP
HYDROLOGY...AKQ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ