Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
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259 FXUS61 KALY 220600 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 200 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Mainly sunny and pleasant end to the weekend before clouds increase tomorrow into Tuesday with cooling temperatures. Then, our long stretch of dry weather ends by the middle of the workweek as a disturbance from the Midwest directs periods of rain into the region Tuesday night through Thursday. Unsettled conditions may continue into Friday but the forecast remains uncertain. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... A bit of a challenging cloud and temperatures forecast tonight. Latest GOES16 night fog channel shows some debris cirrus clouds spilling into the eastern Catskills, mid-Hudson Valley, and areas east from Central NY leftover from yesterday`s convection. It also shows with some mid-level clouds in western New England rotating inland from our exiting coastal low. In between, radiational cooling has led to pockets of low-level stratus clouds. Where skies remain mainly clear temperatures have cooled into the mid to upper 50s with even upper 40s in the southern Adirondacks. Where we have stratus or mid-level clouds, temperatures are a bit warmer in the upper 50s. While fog has yet to develop, with dew point depressions only 3 to 8 degrees, patchy fog may develop where skies remain clear towards the pre-dawn hours. Overnight lows expected to drop into the upper 40s to mid 50s. Patchy early stratus clouds/fog will give way to clearing this morning with sunshine mixing with some diurnally driven cumulus clouds midday into the afternoon as we reach our convective temperature. Our coastal low off Cape Cod will finally exit out to sea with high pressure centered in eastern Quebec building into northern New England. Upper level ridging from western NY/PA will also slide eastward resulting in subsidence over eastern NY and western New England. This will effectively keep our region dry for an 11th straight day (outside of some innocuous isolated showers in the Upper Hudson Valley and southern/western Adirondacks last week) and maintain our stretch of very pleasant weather for this first day of autumn. Easterly winds sustained 5-8kts will advect in a slightly cooler air mass that has spread into northern New England; however, a rather dry atmospheric column will support deep boundary layer mixing up to 850hPa which, when combined with the insolation, will allow high temperatures to reach into the low to mid 70s with upper 60s in the higher terrain areas. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Low level cooling and drying continues from the east, pushing west and south, while upper energy and moisture affecting western NY/PA weakens, dries up and lifts north into Canada. Some question about how much cloud cover from convective debris tracks into our region, but the most cloud cover should be in western areas. Some cloud cover could form where the moisture in western NY/PA converges with the drier air in eastern NY but where that boundary sets up is in question. There should be enough sun to help temperatures reach the upper 60s to lower 70s with a few mid 70s in the Hudson Valley and western Mohawk Valley and a few mid 60s higher terrain. A slow and gradual increase in cloud cover as another upper impulse and surge of moisture and low level forcing slowly builds east. The low level cooler and drier air remains somewhat anchored over our region but rain should hold off until later Monday night and Tuesday and mainly just scattered showers from the Schoharie Valley and western Mohawk Valley through the southwestern Adirondacks. Highs Monday in the 60s to around 70. Highs Tuesday in the 60s with upper 50s to around 60 higher terrain. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Complex upper pattern evolution Wednesday through Saturday. Upper energy weakens and lifts north Wednesday, then phases with northern stream energy dropping south, to develop a closed low that drops through the northeast U.S. Thursday and Friday. So, showers likely with some isolated thunderstorms, especially Wednesday and Wednesday night. With the closed upper low slow to drop south and offshore New England, scattered showers each day through Thursday with more isolated showers Friday. Potentially dry by Saturday. Still, unsettled weather most of the week, and potential for heavy rain seems low as deeper more tropical moisture will be lacking but any measurable rain, even light, will help alleviate the dry conditions we have had lately. Highs Wednesday in the lower to mid 60s with some 50s in higher terrain. Highs Thursday in the mid 60s to around 70 with around 60 higher elevations. Highs Friday and Saturday in the mid 60s to lower 70s. && .AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 06Z Monday...VFR conditions are expected to continue tonight as enhanced mid-level strato-cu coverage remains to the east over New England associated with a surface low near Cape Cod. The western edge of these clouds remains near GFL/PSF, with clearer skies to the west aside from lingering convective debris pushing east into the Hudson Valley from Central NY. All told, mixed low and mid-level clouds are expected through tonight, with a conditional threat for radiation fog if clearer skies persist, most likely at GFL/POU and possibly also at PSF. Few-sct strato-cu at 3-5 kft will develop at all terminals after 12-15Z Sun, before coverage of cirrus at 25 kft begins to increase late in the period, after 00Z Mon, as a frontal system approaches from the west. Calm to light and variable winds tonight will increase out of the northeast to east at 4-8 kt after 12-15Z Sun, turning out of the east to southeast late this afternoon into this evening. Speeds decrease to 5 kt or less after 00-03Z Mon. Outlook... Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Speciale NEAR TERM...Speciale SHORT TERM...NAS LONG TERM...NAS AVIATION...Picard