566
FXUS61 KALY 230545
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
145 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly cloudy skies are expected across the region with isolated
to scattered showers largely west of Albany. Dry weather returns
on Tuesday before an approaching frontal system will see more
widespread rain showers Wednesday into Thursday

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Persistent low and mid-level clouds early this morning will be
supplemented by enhanced high cloud coverage arriving from the
west as an upper-level shortwave passes to the north of the
region through today. Ahead of increased high cloud coverage,
brief cloud breaks may be sufficient for areas of valley fog to
develop overnight, however coverage is expected to be very
limited. Any fog will quickly dissipate after sunrise.

The aforementioned upper shortwave will lift north of the region
as surface ridging extending southwestward into western New
England remains in place through the day. Moisture may be
sufficient to see isolated to scattered rain showers move into
the region from the west later this morning into this afternoon,
most likely across the eastern Catskills, Mohawk and Schoharie
Valleys, and southwestern Adirondacks. Along the Hudson Valley
and eastward, dry weather is anticipated although a few
sprinkles or brief light showers cannot be entirely ruled out.
Any showers will likely end by this evening.

Seasonable temperatures are expected. Following morning lows in
the mid 40s to mid 50s across the region, temperatures will
rise to afternoon highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s in high
terrain and mid 60s to low 70s at lower elevations. Modest
clearing tonight behind the exiting shortwave will see slightly
cooler overnight lows in the 40s to near 50 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Weak shortwave ridging and strengthening surface high to our
northeast should provide at least partly sunny skies Tuesday
with highs mainly in the 60s. Clouds increase once again
Tuesday night in advance of next system approaching from the
west. Some showers may develop after midnight, especially for
areas west of the Hudson River. Lows in the upper 40s to
lower/mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Next upper level impulse and low pressure system track into the
Great Lakes region Wednesday into early Thursday. This will be
our best chance for measurable rain across the region, although
amounts remain uncertain as there is a possibility that nearby
lingering upper level confluent flow allows incoming moisture to
decrease somewhat. Nevertheless, we expect at least some showers
during this time period, with some possibility for a period of
steadier rain in some areas. Some weak elevated instability
could even allow for a few rumbles of thunder, particularly
across the Mohawk Valley, eastern Catskills and mid Hudson
Valley Wednesday afternoon/evening.

Some lingering showers possible Thursday, mainly in the morning,
then fair weather may return by late next week into next
weekend, depending on track/evolution of upper level energy
tracking north and east of the region. Guidance has become more
progressive with this energy, which would favor drier weather.
Should this system become less progressive and/or its track
shift farther south/west, more clouds and some showers may occur
instead.

Cool temperatures Wednesday with highs mainly in the 60s.
Slightly warmer for Thursday through Sunday, assuming some
drying occurs, with highs 70-75 in valleys and 65-70 across
higher elevations. Lows mainly in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Flying conditions are currently VFR for all sites. IR satellite
imagery and surface observations shows a widespread area of
stratocu clouds around 5 kft across much of the area. Based on
recent trends and model soundings, these clouds should stay
around through much of the overnight hours. With the clouds in
place, fog formation appears unlikely for the overnight. Will
continue to mention a brief TEMPO around sunrise for KPSF and
KGFL is case clouds are able to thin enough, but expectations
are for VFR conditions to generally remain in place into the
morning hours on Monday. Light south to southeast winds around 5
kts will be in place for the rest of the overnight hours.

BKN cigs around 5-6 kft, along with bkn mid level clouds around
9-12 kft will be in place through the day on Monday. This will
keep flying conditions VFR for all sites. A brief sprinkle or
light shower can`t be ruled out near KPOU for late in the day,
but any rain looks very spotty and brief, with little to no
impact on visibility. South to southeast winds will continue to
be 5 to 10 kts through the day on Monday.

Some clearing may gradually occur on Monday night, otherwise, it
will remain VFR with some passing clouds still around. Winds
should become light or calm for Monday night.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Picard
NEAR TERM...Picard
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...Frugis