694
FXUS61 KALY 101730
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
130 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low pressure system will remain in place through
Tuesday, bringing cool temperatures, periods of clouds and
isolated to widely scattered showers at times. Coverage of
showers will be less than the past few days though. Drier and
warmer weather is expected on Wednesday, as the upper level low
moves out and is replaced by a building ridge of high pressure.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 106 PM EDT...Large upper level trough remains centered
over Atlantic Canada. The cyclonic flow has been allowing for
fairly widespread cu/stratocu early this afternoon across all of
eastern NY and western New England. Skies are fairly overcast
across the Adirondacks, Lake George Saratoga Region and Mohawk
Valley, with some breaks occurring for areas south and east.

A weak disturbance rotating around the upper level low is
allowing for some light showers to develop. KENX radar imagery
shows these brief showers and sprinkles currently impacting the
Adirondacks and Lake George Saratoga Region. Through the rest
of the afternoon, some brief showers will be possible (mainly
for northern areas). Any precip will be very light and brief in
duration. Very little instability, so will not mention any
thunder today.

A cool airmass will be in place(850mb temperature anomalies of
-1 to -2 STDEV), so highs will be below normal with upper
50s/lower 60s in the mountains and upper 60s/lower 70s in lower
elevations. It will be breezy, with NW winds gusting 15-25 mph
at times.

Tonight looks to be fairly quiet with the disturbance tracking
east into New England, so any leftover showers early in the
evening should dissipate after sunset. There will still be
varying cloud cover under the upper level trough, but enough
breaks in the clouds to allow temperatures to cool into the mid
40s to lower 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The upper trough will still be in place on Tue, but no
significant disturbances are expected to move through. So while
there could still be a few diurnally driven showers developing
in the afternoon, coverage should be mainly isolated. The air
mass will modify somewhat, with highs only expected to be
slightly below normal ranging from mid 60s to mid 70s.

Dry conditions in store for Tue night with surface high
pressure building in. The trough aloft, while still in place,
will be weakening. With appreciable clearing expected, lows
should range from the mid 40s in the Adirondacks to mid 50s in
the Hudson Valley.

The upper trough finally kicks out to the east on Wed, as short
wave ridging builds in from the west during the day. Subsidence
will lead to dry conditions, with temperatures warming to
slightly above normal levels for highs Wed afternoon. Dewpoints
forecast to be in the 50s, so it will not be humid.

Dry/tranquil conditions expected Wed night, with surface high
pressure in place. Lows will be milder than recent nights, but
still comfortable for sleeping with mainly 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Above normal temperatures Thursday into Friday to start the
long term, ahead of a cold front/upper level shortwave
approaching from the Great Lakes. Chances for
showers/thunderstorms increase Thursday night into Friday with
forcing/height falls overspreading the region ahead of these
features. Depending on ultimate timing of front and stregthening
mid/upper level winds, there could be some stronger
thunderstorms Friday afternoon/evening across portions of the
region.

Some showers/thunderstorms could linger into Friday night, with
fair weather and seasonable temperatures/lower humidity levels
returning for next weekend as high pressure builds in from the
Great Lakes region.

Daytime temperatures Thursday/Friday should reach 85-90 within
valley areas, and mid 70s to lower 80s across higher terrain
areas, although Friday temperatures are highly dependent on
timing of frontal system and any showers/T-storms. Maximum heat
indices may reach the lower 90s in some valley areas south of
Albany on Friday. High temperatures Saturday/Sunday generally in
the mid 70s to lower 80s in valleys, and upper 60s to lower/mid
70s across higher elevations. Overnight lows in the 50s and 60s
Friday morning, cooling to the mid 40s to lower/mid 50s
Saturday/Sunday mornings in the wake of the front.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 18Z Tuesday... VFR conditions will largely persist through
the period. Bkn strato-cu deck at 3-6 kft will continue across the
region this evening, with cloud bases likely to lower to MVFR levels
at PSF during the overnight period after 00-03Z Tue, while lower
clouds at 2-3 kft may also reach ALB. Some isolated showers are
still possible in the vicinity of GFL/PSF through 22Z Mon, though no
impacts to flying conditions are expected. Skies will trend clearer
after 12-15Z Tue with sct clouds at 3-4 kft expected through the
remainder of the period.

West to northwest winds at 8-12 kt this afternoon at all terminals
may gust to 20 kt at ALB/PSF through 22-24Z Mon. Winds diminish to
calm or light out of the northwest after 00-03Z Tue, remaining 5 kt
or less into the day Tuesday.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...Frugis/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...Picard