Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
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953 FXUS61 KALY 130208 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 1008 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Partial clearing will occur tonight as an upper level disturbance departs the region. Mainly dry weather is expected on Thursday with a warmer afternoon. Showers and some thunderstorms will accompany a passing cold front Thursday night through Friday with a few strong to severe storms possible. A dry and pleasant weekend follows with summerlike heat arriving early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... As of 1007 PM EDT...IR satellite imagery shows that the widespread clouds that were over the region today have broken up thanks to the loss of daytime heating and drier air making its way into the area. Skies are now fairly clear and with high pressure building into the area, the expectation is for clear skies to continue through much of the overnight hours, along with light to calm winds. With the good radiational cooling, some patchy fog may develop in sheltered areas, but this doesn`t look too widespread. Otherwise, quiet weather continues with lows falling back into the mid-40s to mid-50s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Weak upper-level ridging will be in place on Thursday with surface high pressure located to our south and east. This will result in a southerly low-level flow advecting in a warmer air mass. 850 hPa temperatures will rise to around +15C. Partly to mostly sunny conditions will result in highs rising into the 80s in the valleys and the mid to upper 70s across the higher elevations. An upper-level trough and surface cold front will begin to approach the region starting Thursday night with a prefrontal trough axis head of the cold front. A few showers and rumbles of thunder are possible for areas north and west of Albany late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Additional showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of the cold front on Friday. A general consensus is that areas just to the south and east of Albany will be most favored for some strong to severe thunderstorms with the cold front already crossing areas farther north and west by the midday hours. SBCAPE values may be in the 1000-1500 J/kg range in the warm sector along with 40-50 kt of 0-6km shear. This could support some organized convection capable of hail and damaging wind gusts. A slight risk for severe thunderstorms is located across areas south and east of Albany on the Day 3 outlook from the Storm Prediction Center. Precipitable water values approaching 1.50 inches could also lead to locally heavy rainfall. Temperatures will vary across the region due in part to the passage of the cold front with values ranging from the upper 60s to lower 70s across the Adirondacks to the mid to upper 80s across the mid-Hudson Valley into northwestern CT. Storms will depart the region Friday evening with just a few lingering light rain showers into the overnight. Humidity levels will begin to fall behind the front. Lows will drop back into the upper 40s to upper 50s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A beautiful weekend is in store as Canadian high pressure builds across the region. This will result in mostly clear weather with near seasonable highs and low humidity. Thereafter, a strong upper-level ridge will build across the region and bring very warm to hot and humid weather. There remains some uncertainty with the strength and location of the ridge, but the potential for a period of highs in the 90s in the valleys and mid to upper 80s across the higher elevations is increasing. 500 hPa height anomalies could reach +2 STDEV. The increase in humidity will result in potentially dangerous feels- like temperatures over 100 degrees. There is the possibility for an upper level shortwave or two to track up and over the ridge and bring the potential for some isolated showers and thunderstorms each day Monday through Wednesday but the timing and track of these remain uncertain. For now, will keep PoPs in the slight chance to low chance range. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Flying conditions are currently VFR. Sct-bkn cigs are in place over the region around 4-6 kft, but these are showing signs of breaking up and dissipating. Most sites will be seeing clear skies by 03z, with just a few lingering clouds for the overnight hours. It should remain VFR through the overnight. There is a low chance for some patchy fog to develop late at night, but the dry low levels and short night duration should help minimize this threat. Westerly winds of 5 to 10 kts this evening will become light to calm for the overnight hours. Flying conditions will be VFR through the day on Thursday. Few- sct diurnal cu around 5-7 kft will form by the afternoon hours, along with some cirrus clouds. Mid and high level clouds will start to increase by Thursday evening, but any precip will hold off until late Thursday night or Friday. Southerly winds will be 5 to 10 kts on Thursday for all TAF sites. Outlook... Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Rathbun NEAR TERM...Frugis/Rathbun SHORT TERM...Rathbun LONG TERM...Rathbun AVIATION...Frugis