925
FXUS61 KALY 180548
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
148 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure continues today with increasing
clouds as a weather system moves along the Atlantic Coast. This
weather system could bring chances of rain showers late tonight into
Thursday. Friday could see some lingering showers in the Mid-Hudson
Valley and Litchfield Hills region, otherwise dry conditions are in
store into this weekend through early next week with seasonable
temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Update as of 1:04 AM EDT... Only minor change to hourly
temperatures for the next one to two hours as a few locations
have cooled 3 to 5 degrees and are in the low 50s already for
this overnight period. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast is
doing well through 8 AM tomorrow morning and no other changes
were needed. See previous discussion below for more details...

As of 1013 PM EDT...An area of high pressure is anchored over
Upstate New York for tonight, which will continue to provide for
dry weather. Despite high pressure in control, a developing
weak disturbance south of the region near the mid Atlantic Coast
has been allowing for widespread high clouds across the area.
These high clouds are fairly thin and there are some breaks in
the coverage as well.

Similar to the past few nights, radiational fog is expected to
form for the late night hours in valley areas and near bodies of
water. The thin clouds in place won`t be able to prevent fog
from forming, so will continue to expect similar conditions to
the past few nights with the late night fog occurring in the
typical locations. Low temperatures should mainly be in the
50s.

The weak coastal storm off the mid Atlantic coast should
continue to slowly track northeast on Wed. Model guidance has
trended drier due to a more easterly track compared to the past
few days. So dry conditions should prevail across most of the
area, with just a 20-30% chance of a few showers near the I-84
corridor. Skies expected to be mostly cloudy from around I-90
south, and partly sunny north. So high temperatures will be
coolest where clouds are most prevalent (70s), with upper
70s/lower 80s north.

The coastal low tracks to a position south of Cape Cod/Rhode
Island Wed night, where its northward progress is expected to
stall. Isolated to scattered showers may rotate around the
northwest periphery of the system. Still only 20-30% for showers
south of Albany and remaining completely dry across the
northern half of the area. With thicker cloud cover anticipated,
low temperatures will be mild ranging from the mid to upper
50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The coastal low south of New England is not expected to move
much on Thu, and may actually nudge slightly southward through
the day. So chances for showers remain low, with just a small
area of 20-30% PoPs for areas well south/east of Albany.
Elsewhere dry conditions will persist. Skies should be mostly
cloudy east of the Hudson Valley and partly sunny west. High
temperatures look similar ranging from the mid/upper 70s to
lower 80s. The warmest readings look to be in the Hudson Valley
from around Albany north. It will feel somewhat humid with
dewpoints in the lower 60s in lower elevations.

As the coastal storm continues to slowly drift south Thu night,
chances for showers will lower as well. Will only mention ~20%
PoPs well south/east of Albany. Lows look to be in the mid 50s
to around 60, with the coolest temperatures in the higher
terrain west of the Hudson Valley.

A large area of high pressure will start to track southward
from eastern Quebec on Fri, with ridging extending south/west
from the center into New England and eastern NY. This will push
a cold front south across our area. The front may interact with
moisture from the old coastal storm, so will mention 20% chance
of showers across much of the area with only isolated coverage
expected. Highs Fri will remain above normal ahead of the cold
front, with mainly mid 70s to near 80.

Aside from an isolated shower south of Albany Fri evening, the
cold front will push south of the area Fri night. Lingering
cloud cover behind the front could still keep temperatures
relatively mild. Lows should generally be in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure will slowly drift south from the far eastern
Quebec and the Canadian Maritimes on Sat to Maine by Monday.
Ridging is expected to extend south/west from the center of the
high into New England and eastern NY with a seasonably cool
east-northeast breeze. This pattern should result in dry
conditions with temperatures cooling off to near normal levels.

Dry weather could persist into Tue, as the high shifts south of
Maine with surface ridging still holding on. A cold front and
upper trough approaching from the Great Lakes may get close
enough to the area to bring a few showers, but most guidance is
showing the bulk of any showers to hold off until mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Cirrus clouds continue to expand northward across the terminals
tonight resulting in BKN250 across much of the area. Thinner
cirrus clouds around GFL has supported radiational cooling and
fog formation resulting in MVFR/IFR visibilities. Larger dew
point depression at PSF, POU and especially at ALB will keep
these terminals VFR through much of the overnight; however,
included a TEMPO group for MVFR vis as we near sunrise from 08 -
12 UTC given the longer nights and dew point depressions
already just 1-3 degrees. This should support sufficient time
for cooling that allows temperatures to approach their
respective dew points and support MVFR vis from fog. Given
cirrus deck overhead, did not include IFR vis.

Any fog should dissipate by 12- 13 UTC. Then, VFR conditions
expected at all sites through the end of the TAF period as BKN
to OVC cirrus canopy blankets the terminals today. Some patchy
scattered showers from an incoming coastal low may be within the
vicinity of POU towards the end of the TAF period (03 - 06 UTC)
but only include VCSH given a dry atmospheric sounding.

Light winds (under 5 kts) expected for GFL, ALB, and POU with
winds becoming east-southeast at PSF by 17 - 18 UTC and
sustained around 5-6kts through sunset. Then winds become light
and variable at all sites.


Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Webb
NEAR TERM...Frugis/JPV/Webb
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...Speciale