780
FXUS61 KALY 291852
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
252 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A moist southwest flow will bring periods of rain with a chance
for thunderstorms into tonight. A cold front will bring
additional scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday, some of
which could be strong to severe, mainly south and east of
Albany. Fair weather with cool and breezy conditions return for
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
There is a marginal risk for excessive rainfall today and
tonight across all but Litchfield County CT. An area of light
to moderate rain, oriented southwest to northeast, will
gradually overspread the Albany forecast area this afternoon.
Rain has been most steady today over the northwestern areas with
little to no rain over southeastern areas. Southeastern areas
will be the last to receive any rain later today and may only
see light amounts while some northwestern areas are already over
an inch of rain.

There is a marginal risk for severe weather today and tonight
across the western two thirds of the Albany forecast area. Some
weak elevated instability approaching from the west may allow
for a few embedded thunderstorms this evening across the SW
Adirondacks, Mohawk Valley and eastern Catskills, along with
heavier downpours and some gusty winds.

It will remain breezy into this evening, especially within
north/south oriented valleys and the Capital Region, with
south/southeast winds occasionally gusting as high as 30-35
mph. High temperatures should reach the lower/mid 70s in valley
areas later this afternoon, except 75-80 across the mid Hudson
Valley and southern Litchfield County. Portions of the southern
Adirondacks, Lake George region and southern Vermont may only
reach the upper 60s to lower 70s due to more frequent showers.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Area of rain and possible embedded thunderstorms crosses the
area overnight bringing rain to most if not all locations. A
cold front will be just west of the area around sunrise.

On Sunday, The Storm Prediction Center has placed the southeast
part of our forecast area in a slight risk for severe weather
with the rest of the area in a marginal risk. The cold front is
forecast to move from northwest to southeast across the area.
Ahead of the front the airmass will be unstable.

We expect a band of showers/thunderstorms to develop and
cross the region during the day Sunday. Heavy downpours and
gusty winds could accompany some of these storms, as instability
peaks in the afternoon with CAPES 1500-2000 J/kg and 0-6 km
shear of 40-50 KT. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary
severe threat, however can not rule a tornado or two across the
Slight Risk area given the strong shear, potentially high
instability and low LCL`s ahead of the cold front. High temps
should reach the 80s for most valley areas and 70s across higher
terrain areas. Heat indices will approach the mid 90s across
portions of the mid Hudson Valley, but look to be below heat
advisory thresholds.

A few showers and storms may linger Sunday evening over the far
southeastern areas and a few showers and storms may redevelop
over the southern adirondacks in the evening with the upper
level trough and cold pool moving southeastward.

Monday looks cooler and breezy, but with the upper level trough
overhead, a shower is possible over western New England.
Otherwise clearing and cooler for Monday with highs mainly in
the 70s.

Mainly clear and cool for Monday night, with low temperatures in
the 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surface high pressure will be centered over the region on
Tuesday resulting in sunny, warm and dry weather. This high
will push southeastward on Wednesday resulting in a southwest
return flow of milder air. Wednesday should also remain mostly
dry. Highs will rise well into the 80s across the valleys and
the upper 70s to lower 80s in the higher elevations.

A cold front associated with an area of low pressure tracking
well northward into Quebec will slowly cross the region
Wednesday night into Thursday, Independence Day. Showers and a
few thunderstorms will likely accompany the front during this
time. There remains a bit of uncertainty with the movement of
the front. Best case scenario, the front moves through the area
early thursday leaving a mostly fair Independence Day before
the front returns northward Thursday night into Friday bringing
additional showers and storms. Worse case the front stalls over
the area with showers and storms on Independence day. Will
monitor trends over the coming days. Otherwise, it looks to be a
very warm and humid day on Thursday with heat index values
reaching the 90s in the valley areas.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18z Sunday...Mainly MVFR conditions are expected this
afternoon, although there is a chance for a few pockets of VFR
conditions through the first few hours of the TAF period especially
at POU. A period of rain is expected at GFL all afternoon with MVFR
vsbys/cigs and occasional pockets of IFR this evening. Precipitation
will be more showery at ALB/PSF and may not move in until mid to
late afternoon, with showers holding off until this evening at POU.

Continued showers are expected through the first half of tonight,
especially at GFL. Cigs are expected to lower to IFR at all TAF
sites overnight tonight. The start time of IFR cigs remains somewhat
uncertain, and confidence in IFR is highest after around midnight
through sunrise tomorrow morning. Vsbys will likely be VFR to MVFR
with patchy fog/mist due to abundant low-level moisture. After
sunrise tomorrow morning, any low stratus gradually mixes out with a
return to VFR conditions by mid-morning at all TAF sites. However,
an approaching will bring chances for showers and a few
thunderstorms late tomorrow morning or early afternoon, with the
highest chances at POU/PSF. Have included prob30 groups here towards
the end of the TAF period with a VCSH at ALB to mention the
thunderstorm threat. Not expecting any showers/storms at GFL
tomorrow.

Winds will be at around 10-15 kt this afternoon from the
south/southeast with gusts to around 25 kt. Gusts diminish after
sunset this evening (except at ALB), but sustained winds remain at
around 10 kt out of the south. Tomorrow morning, winds at ALB, GFL
and possibly PSF become west/southwesterly behind the cold front at
around 10 kt with a few higher gusts possible, while winds remain
southerly at around 10 kt at POU. Winds at 2000 ft increase to
around 40 kt at ALB/GFL/POU and 45-50 kt at PSF this evening and
tonight. While ALB/GFL/POU are expected to fall just short of LLWS
criteria, due in part to strong surface winds, PSF may meet LLWS
criteria late tonight through around sunrise.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Independence Day: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There is a marginal risk for excessive rainfall today and
tonight across all but Litchfield County CT. Showers will
continue to overspread the region tonight, with embedded
thunderstorms developing later today into tonight. High PWAT`s
of ~2", warm cloud depth and some potential training of
thunderstorms could lead to heavy rainfall and localized
flooding tonight into Sunday. The greatest potential for this
looks to be across the southern Adirondacks and western Mohawk
Valley for tonight, where some areas have already received over
an inch of rain.

Localized flooding of urban, low lying and poor drainage areas
is possible from any thunderstorms.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...SND
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...Main
HYDROLOGY...SND/KL