793
FXUS61 KALY 250523
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
123 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring dry weather through much of Saturday.
A few showers and thunderstorms are possible late Saturday
afternoon and evening. Some sunshine Sunday with an isolated
shower possible. A stronger low pressure system is expected to
bring a widespread rainfall on Monday with occasional showers
lingering into midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
.UPDATE...Made some minor adjustments based on current obs.
Otherwise, satellite imagery showing some high level cirrus
clouds moving in from the west, but they look fairly thin and
should not impede cooling once winds become calm in most areas.

.PREV DISCUSSION[0947]...Outside of some patchy clouds across
the SW Adirondacks, skies remain clear. West/northwest winds
remain somewhat gusty across portions of the Berkshires and
southern Greens, where some gusts up to 25 mph remain.
Elsewhere, winds have dropped off considerably from earlier,
generally less than 10 mph.

Temperatures will drop rapidly overnight with clear skies and a
very dry air mass in place, along with decreasing winds. Expect
min temps in the upper 30s/lower 40s across portions of the SW
Adirondacks, with mid 40s to lower 50s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Weakening upper energy in the Great Lakes and OH Valley will
track through our region with a weakening low level cold front
later Saturday afternoon and night. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms will reach western areas late Saturday
afternoon. Otherwise, mostly sunny Saturday morning will become
partly sunny in the afternoon with highs in the upper 70s to
lower 80s with some mid 80s mid Hudson Valley and mid 70s higher
terrain.

Any isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm activity
should exit by daybreak Sunday and intervals of clouds and sun
trending to more sun than clouds through Sunday with perhaps an
isolated shower or thunderstorm in areas of terrain with the
weak cold front washing out over our region. Highs Sunday around
80 to mid 80s with upper 70s higher terrain.

Strong upper energy begins to approach from the Great Lakes and
OH Valley. Rapidly increasing warm advection, moisture advection
and low level jet energy will support increasing coverage of
showers and scattered thunderstorms Monday. Instability should
be marginal and low level forcing very broad, so severe
thunderstorm potential limited but not out of the question since
considerable deep layer shear will be present. Locally heavy
rain may be more of a threat but not expecting enough rain for
much of a flood threat. Highs Monday around 70 to mid 70s with
60s higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A brief period of drying Tuesday with the exit of the one upper
impulse but another strong upper impulse in Canada dropping
through the Great Lakes Tuesday night, slowing its movement as
it tracks near or through our region the rest of the week.
There is considerable spread in the track and timing of this
system that would affect our region Wednesday through Friday.
Temperatures would be considerable cooler due to the upper low
being overhead, and more clouds than sun, with intervals of
showers, mainly during the day when the upper cold pool would
contribute to instability.

Temperatures Tuesday, with the isolated to scattered shower and
thunderstorm coverage, in the 70s to around 80 and some upper
60s southern Adirondacks. Highs Wednesday with the potential
clouds and rain, around 70 to mid 70s with 60s higher terrain.
Highs Thursday, with continued chances for rain, in the 60s and
around 60 higher terrain. Highs Friday, with potentially
decreasing coverage of showers, around 70 to mid 70s with mid to
upper 60s higher terrain.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR flying conditions are expected through the rest of the
overnight hours with just few-sct high cirrus clouds around.
T/TD spreads are large enough to prevent any radiational fog
from forming overnight with light to calm winds in place.

On Saturday, skies will be mostly sunny through the entire day.
Some high cirrus may gradually increase during the afternoon
hours and some cu may start to develop and spread into the area
by late in the day as well. South to southwest winds will be 5
to 10 kts on Saturday.

A stray shower can`t be ruled out during the evening hours
(mainly after 00z Sunday), but this activity will be drying up
and diminishing as it reaches into the area, so coverage and
intensity looks fairly light at this point. Will address with
a VCSH for now, as any showers look spotty and light. Will keep
VFR flying conditions into Saturday night, with sct-bkn cigs
around 5-7 kft. Southerly winds will be 5 kts or less on
Saturday night.


Outlook...

Sunday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Memorial Day: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely
SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite
SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday  Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...Frugis