453
FXUS61 KALY 221935
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
335 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level disturbance will bring increasing clouds late
tonight, with mostly cloudy skies for Monday along with a few
showers, mainly south and west of Albany. High pressure will
bring dry weather and some clearing for Tuesday. An approaching
low pressure and frontal system will bring increasing chances
for showers for Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 335 PM EDT, band of clouds has developed for many areas
east of the Hudson River, although it has been gradially eroding
across portions of Windam and eastern Litchfield County. This
band of clouds should continue to gradually erode from both the
west and east over the next 1-2 hours.

Elsewhere, some Cu have been developing across portion of the SW
Adirondacks. An isolated shower or two will remain possible in
this area, and possibly extreme western Ulster County through
sunset.

Diurnal Cu/strato-cu should then dissipate this evening, with a
period of clear to partly cloudy skies expected before clouds
thicken from the west toward daybreak. This should allow temps
to drop off into the mid/upper 40s across portions of the
southern Adirondacks/upper Hudson Valley and western New England
where enough clear skies occur, with lower 50s elsewhere.

Patchy fog may develop later this evening, however overall areal
extent is not expected to be too widespread at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Shortwave currently across Great Lakes region will track mainly
north of the region Monday. Lingering confluent upper level flow
across the region should weaken shortwave and overall dynamics
associated with this feature upon reaching the region Monday
afternoon. However, enough mid level moisture may allow for some
spotty light showers/sprinkles to reach portions of the Mohawk
Valley, eastern Catskills and Schoharie County by mid to late
Monday morning through mid afternoon. Should confluent upper
level flow become weaker and/or shift slightly farther east than
currently expected, some showers/sprinkles could even extend
into the Capital Region and mid Hudson Valley midday through
early/mid afternoon. Otherwise, mainly cloudy with slightly
cooler temperatures for Monday, with highs 65-70 for valley
areas and 60-65 across higher terrain areas.

Weak shortwave ridging and strengthening surface high to our
northeast should provide some clearing for Monday night, and at
least partly sunny skies Tuesday. Cool Monday night with lows
mainly in the 40s to lower 50s, and highs Tuesday mainly in the
60s.

Clouds increase once again Tuesday night in advance of next
system approaching from the west. Some showers may develop after
midnight, especially for areas west of the Hudson River. Lows in
the upper 40s to lower/mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Next upper level impulse and low pressure system track into the
Great Lakes region Wednesday into early Thursday. This will be
our best chance for measurable rain across the region, although
amounts remain uncertain as there is a possibilty that nearby
lingering upper level confluent flow allows incoming moisture to
decrease somewhat. Nevertheless, we expect at least some showers
during this time period, with some possibility for a period of
steadier rain in some areas. Some weak elevated instability
could even allow for a few rumbles of thunder, particularly
across the Mohawk Valley, eastern Catskills and mid Hudson
Valley Wednesday afternoon/evening.

Some lingering showers possible Thursday, mainly in the morning,
then fair weather may return by late next week into next
weekend, depending on track/evolution of upper level energy
tracking north and east of the region. Guidance has become more
progressive with this energy, which would favor drier weather.
Should this system become less progressive and/or its track
shift farther south/west, more clouds and some showers may occur
instead.

Cool temperatures Wednesday with highs mainly in the 60s.
Slightly warmer for Thursday through Sunday, assuming some
drying occurs, with highs 70-75 in valleys and 65-70 across
higher elevations. Lows mainly in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18z Monday...Mainly VFR conditions are expected for the
upcoming TAF cycle. Few to scattered low ceilings around 3-5 kft are
expected this evening along and ahead of approaching frontal
boundary, but should yield little if any operational impact.
Held on to mention of restricted visibilities at GFL after 09z,
with patchy fog once again possible. This will burn off after
12z, with increasing mid to high level clouds for the remainder
of the period.

East to northeast winds initially around 5-10 kts will diminish
and become light & variable this evening.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...Speck