373
FXUS61 KALY 230238
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1038 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level disturbance will bring increasing clouds late
tonight, with mostly cloudy skies for Monday along with a few
showers, mainly south and west of Albany. High pressure will
bring dry weather and some clearing for Tuesday. An approaching
low pressure and frontal system will bring increasing chances
for showers for Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
.Update...As of 10:35 PM EDT... Mid-level clouds have remained
in place across the region this evening with the 00z KALY
sounding showing some moisture trapped beneath an inversion
around 850 mb and a side-door cold frontal boundary providing
some lift across the region. Expecting these mid- level clouds
to remain in place through the next several hours, with
additional mid and high clouds approaching after 06z ahead of an
upper disturbance. This is keeping temperatures a few degrees
warmer than the previous forecast. Bumped up hourly temps and
overnight lows by a couple degrees and increased cloud cover
through the next few hours. Otherwise, just minor adjustments to
the previous forecast with more details below...

.Previous..Coastal Low well SE of Cape Cod and high pressure to
our northeast are resulting in E/SE flow and relatively cool
temperatures across our region this evening. With a ridge of
high pressure extending southwestwards into western New England,
most of the region remains dry. Clouds thicken from the west
toward daybreak. This should allow temps to drop off into the
mid/upper 40s across portions of the southern Adirondacks/upper
Hudson Valley and western New England where enough clear skies
occur, with lower 50s elsewhere. Patchy fog may develop later
this evening, however overall areal extent is not expected to be
too widespread at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Shortwave currently across Great Lakes region will track mainly
north of the region Monday. Lingering confluent upper level flow
across the region should weaken shortwave and overall dynamics
associated with this feature upon reaching the region Monday
afternoon. However, enough mid level moisture may allow for some
spotty light showers/sprinkles to reach portions of the Mohawk
Valley, eastern Catskills and Schoharie County by mid to late
Monday morning through mid afternoon. Should confluent upper
level flow become weaker and/or shift slightly farther east than
currently expected, some showers/sprinkles could even extend
into the Capital Region and mid Hudson Valley midday through
early/mid afternoon. Otherwise, mainly cloudy with slightly
cooler temperatures for Monday, with highs 65-70 for valley
areas and 60-65 across higher terrain areas.

Weak shortwave ridging and strengthening surface high to our
northeast should provide some clearing for Monday night, and at
least partly sunny skies Tuesday. Cool Monday night with lows
mainly in the 40s to lower 50s, and highs Tuesday mainly in the
60s.

Clouds increase once again Tuesday night in advance of next
system approaching from the west. Some showers may develop after
midnight, especially for areas west of the Hudson River. Lows in
the upper 40s to lower/mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Next upper level impulse and low pressure system track into the
Great Lakes region Wednesday into early Thursday. This will be
our best chance for measurable rain across the region, although
amounts remain uncertain as there is a possibility that nearby
lingering upper level confluent flow allows incoming moisture to
decrease somewhat. Nevertheless, we expect at least some showers
during this time period, with some possibility for a period of
steadier rain in some areas. Some weak elevated instability
could even allow for a few rumbles of thunder, particularly
across the Mohawk Valley, eastern Catskills and mid Hudson
Valley Wednesday afternoon/evening.

Some lingering showers possible Thursday, mainly in the morning,
then fair weather may return by late next week into next
weekend, depending on track/evolution of upper level energy
tracking north and east of the region. Guidance has become more
progressive with this energy, which would favor drier weather.
Should this system become less progressive and/or its track
shift farther south/west, more clouds and some showers may occur
instead.

Cool temperatures Wednesday with highs mainly in the 60s.
Slightly warmer for Thursday through Sunday, assuming some
drying occurs, with highs 70-75 in valleys and 65-70 across
higher elevations. Lows mainly in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 00z Tuesday...All TAF sites currently seeing VFR
conditions, which should continue through the duration of the
TAF period. Can`t rule out some brief patchy fog at GFL late
tonight/around daybreak if there are enough breaks in the
clouds, and some MVFR stratus may develop for a few hours around
sunrise at PSF as well. Otherwise, will see increasing mid and
high clouds after midnight and through tomorrow, but conditions
should remain VFR. A few showers can`t be ruled out tomorrow
afternoon. Added a VCSH group at POU late tomorrow afternoon
where confidence is highest, but may need to add mention of
showers at ALB/GFL with subsequent TAF issuances if confidence
increases.

Winds this evening will be from the E/SE at around 5 kt, except
5-10 kt at ALB. Winds generally diminish to 5 kt or less between
04-06z, but increase to 5-8 kt from the SE tomorrow morning,
continuing through the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL/Main
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...Main