316
FXUS61 KALY 110142
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
942 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
It will remain warm and humid for Friday into the upcoming
weekend, with some additional thunderstorms possible each
afternoon and evening, with the greatest coverage on Sunday.

&&

.UPDATE...
The severe thunderstorm risk for tonight has ended for eastern
New York and western New England. Patchy fog will begin
developing in the next few hours across locations that recently
saw precipitation, otherwise a calmer and humid night is in
store.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

- There is a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms on Friday
  once again, with isolated thunderstorms capable of producing
  damaging winds once again.


Discussion:
Lows falling into the 60s overnight. Some patchy fog may
develop, especially for places that see rainfall.

On Friday, the surface boundary will still be close to the area,
but the upper level disturbance will have moved away. 0-6 km
bulk shear is even lower on Friday, with values generally under
25 kts. A few afternoon thunderstorms may develop, especially
for southern areas, but coverage looks less compared to
Thursday. With high dewpoints once again and slow storm
movement, some downpours could lead to an isolated flood threat
once again. A rogue damaging wind gusts or two is possible as
well, but the limited shear and meager mid level lapse rates
should help prevent widespread storms from getting strong. High
temps will be well into the 80s in valley areas, although heat
index values look to stay just below advisory criteria.

More afternoon storms are possible once again on Saturday with
the surface boundary still stalled nearby or just southwest of
the area. Coverage looks isolated to scattered once again, with
the most activity probably south or southwest of the Capital
Region. The threat for severe storms looks fairly low due to
limited shear, but there should be decent instability thanks to
the warm and humid air mass in place. Highs look to approach 90
in valley areas and heat index values may reach the lower 90s.
They may come close to advisory criteria in a few spots.
Otherwise, it will remain partly cloudy and muggy with lows
falling into the 60s on Saturday night. Any precip will fall
apart after sunset.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Message:

- Heat Advisory may be needed for some of the valley areas
  Sunday and Wednesday for dangerous heat index values reaching
  or exceeding the mid 90s.

Discussion:

It will remain fairly warm and humid through much of the long
term period. Valley highs will be in the upper 80s to near 90 on
Sunday, with heat index values in the lower to possibly middle
90s. With an upper level disturbance approaching from the
northwest, some thunderstorms are possible once again on Sunday,
especially in the afternoon and evening hours. ML/AI based
convective hazard forecasts suggests there could be severe
threat for Sunday with the approaching disturbance and abundant
instability in place, so will need to monitor closely.

Some more showers or t-storms can`t be ruled out with the
passing cold front on Monday. Temps look slightly cooler for
Monday compared to the weekend. However, warmer temps will
quickly return for Tuesday into Wednesday with building heights
and warming temps aloft. With the building ridging, there looks
to be less convection on Tuesday and Wednesday compared to
earlier in the week as well. Heat Index values may come close or
exceed advisory criteria, especially by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Vicinity thunderstorms between the KGFL and KALB airfield
continues for the next hour before thunderstorm activity for
airfields comes to an end. For KGFL, kept IFR conditions in
TEMPO groups for the fog development tonight as confidence is
high to include them and keep the prevailing lines as a mix of
VFR and MVFR through 12z. Low cloud ceilings are likely due to
low stratus for KPOU, KALB, and KPSF overnight with a mix of
MVFR/IFR ceilings. Otherwise, calm winds are in store through
tomorrow morning. VFR conditions returns for between 12z and 15z
with winds becoming more southeasterly between 5 and 10 knots
for tomorrow afternoon.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis/Webb
UPDATE...Webb
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Webb