Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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646 FXUS64 KAMA 121917 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 217 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM ... (This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 216 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Cumulus clouds have developed in northeast New Mexico into southeast Colorado along a surface trough. With surface temperatures in the mid 90`s along this trough, there may be just enough instability to produce a shower or thunderstorm in our northwest CWA along this trough late this afternoon and evening. Storms may produce strong gusty winds and small hail. Thunderstorms will be possible again on Thursday, mainly across the northern CWA. This is where the best convergence will be along a surface trough. Storms will likely be slow moving as the winds aloft are expected to be light. Southerly winds will be common in the 10 to 20 mph range with occasional higher gusts tonight through Thursday night. Many places may reach 100 degrees or higher on Thursday we may need to consider heat advisories for Palo Duro Canyon and parts of the Canadian River Valley. && .LONG TERM ... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 216 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Friday should have our best chances for showers and thunderstorms for the Panhandles. The best chances will be for the western and northern combined Panhandles as an H500 trough moves ENE across northern NM and southern CO before exiting the northern Panhandles by Saturday morning. Although a good surface of lift with the trough is present, overall CAPE and shear is quite anemic. Could see a strong storm or two with strong wind gusts and small hail, but a very low chance of severe thunderstorms are expected at this time. Timing will have to be update with rain chances though, since the latest 12/12Z model and numerical data are not in an accord. Depending on which model data you assess, the main trough axis will slowly move through the northern Panhandles with the main amplitude axis near PDC as it moves east. This area of lift could provide additional diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms (around 20-30% chance) favoring the central and eastern Panhandles. Some storms could also be strong at times. We dry out Sunday through early next week before our next rain chances may come the end of the long term forecast period. High temperatures throughout the long term forecast period will be above average for mid June. Meccariello && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1209 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Skies are expected to remain VFR. South and southwest winds at around 15 knots with higher gusts will tend to veer some this evening and decrease to 10 to 15 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 67 100 68 96 / 0 0 10 10 Beaver OK 69 105 67 99 / 0 10 20 0 Boise City OK 64 102 65 96 / 20 10 10 30 Borger TX 69 105 70 101 / 0 10 10 10 Boys Ranch TX 67 103 68 99 / 10 10 10 10 Canyon TX 65 99 66 94 / 0 0 10 10 Clarendon TX 64 96 67 92 / 0 0 0 0 Dalhart TX 63 102 64 97 / 20 10 10 20 Guymon OK 66 104 66 98 / 0 10 20 10 Hereford TX 66 101 67 95 / 0 0 10 10 Lipscomb TX 67 102 68 98 / 0 0 10 0 Pampa TX 67 100 67 95 / 0 0 10 0 Shamrock TX 66 97 67 95 / 0 0 0 0 Wellington TX 66 97 67 96 / 0 0 0 0 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...15 LONG TERM....29 AVIATION...15