Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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509 FXUS64 KAMA 231653 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1153 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 322 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 - Thunderstorms possible in the southeast along a cold front. Storms should stay below severe levels. && .SHORT TERM ... (Today through Tuesday night) Issued at 322 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Upper level low that brought us all of the rain over the weekend will continue to shear apart as it moves northeast through the Midwest. Next upper level trough is expected to drop south- southeastward out of the Canadian Prairies and into northern Missouri/southern Iowa by late Tuesday afternoon. The flow over the Panhandles will be northerly on the back side of this trough. A vort max is expected to move through this flow and it is expected to clip our eastern areas Tuesday afternoon. This vort max coupled with a cold front may provide enough lift to produce showers and thunderstorms across the southeast Texas Panhandle Tuesday afternoon and evening. && .LONG TERM ... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 322 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 The upper level trough to our northeast is expected to close off into an upper level low by Wednesday night and it is expected to get cutoff from the upper flow. Then the upper low is expected engulf a hurricane that moves northward through the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile, an upper level ridge will remain parked over the central and southern Rockies through the period. The Panhandles will remain in a northerly flow between these two upper level features. This upper level pattern should keep the Panhandles dry Wednesday through Sunday and it will keep high temperatures around or just above average. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1152 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 VFR conditions are anticipated through this forecast period. Winds will be mostly light and variable through today and most of tonight. Winds will then turn northwesterly trending toward northerly by the end of the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 55 84 53 81 / 0 10 0 0 Beaver OK 48 79 49 79 / 0 10 0 0 Boise City OK 50 77 48 78 / 0 0 0 0 Borger TX 54 87 53 85 / 0 10 0 0 Boys Ranch TX 52 84 51 82 / 0 10 0 0 Canyon TX 53 84 51 81 / 0 10 0 0 Clarendon TX 54 86 55 82 / 0 20 10 0 Dalhart TX 49 78 47 79 / 0 0 0 0 Guymon OK 47 79 47 80 / 0 10 0 0 Hereford TX 53 85 52 82 / 0 10 0 0 Lipscomb TX 52 83 52 80 / 0 10 0 0 Pampa TX 53 83 52 81 / 0 10 0 0 Shamrock TX 54 86 55 83 / 0 20 10 0 Wellington TX 55 88 57 85 / 0 20 20 0 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...15 LONG TERM....15 AVIATION...52