221
FXUS64 KAMA 190539
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1239 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 342 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Severe thunderstorms are possible across the eastern half of the
area late this afternoon and evening, with damaging winds and
large hail the primary hazards.

Above normal temperatures will continue through Friday, trending
closer to or even a little below normal in some locations for the
weekend into early next week.

A new system is expected to create showers and thunderstorms
across the area late Friday afternoon through Saturday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

As of early this afternoon, surface observations are starting to
see the expected dryline form across the eastern portions of the
Panhandles. Latest model expectations continue to see this
boundary as our main lifting mechanism for our activity this
evening. In terms of impacts, most storms will likely be
concentrated on the eastern extent of the boundary, with timing
placing initiation as early as 4 to 5 pm this evening. On the
eastern side of the boundary, general consensus between the CAMs
is placing around 1000 to 2000 MLCAPE across the area, which may
not be a hefty values but should be the enough to prompt concerns
of severe hail. As for DCAPE, values are running around 1500 J/kg
or greater for the eastern extent, which would put us more in
favor of strong damaging winds. What is interesting, however, is
that the more favored ingredient for the day will be the wind
shear with agreement seeing at least 40 kts of effective bulk
shear present for this afternoon. This variable only gets more
favorable as we head into the evening hours thanks to the presence
of a low-level jet that looks to pick after 7 PM tonight. This
jet could help keep storms running into the later hours of the day
despite the lack of daytime heating. What is also concerning is
the combination of the higher shear, low-level jet, and boundary
present could bring about the right mixture to see a spin-up on a
thunderstorm this evening. However, the confidence on this notion
is very low given that everything would have to align just right
to even result in a quick spin-up. Regardless, the storm potential
will heavily rely on the final position of the dryline boundary
and how sharp it actually is.

Meanwhile, Thursday continues to trend towards a more drier day
with model agreement seeing the upper-level ridge strengthen with
the approaching trough. This should push a majority of the
Panhandles to the western side of the dryline where conditions
will breezy but overall quiet for the day. The only expectation to
this dry forecast maybe the far southeastern Panhandles, which may
could stay east of the boundary for the day. Otherwise, look for
another warm day with afternoon high temperatures in the mid to
upper 90s.

Scoleri

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

All eyes turn to the approaching cutoff low over southern California
on Friday.  Low level moisture will continue to be brought northward
on Friday.  The axis of greatest 700 mb theta-e will be found north
south across eastern New Mexico.  Would expect thunderstorms to
develop over eastern New Mexico during the afternoon on Friday and
then the southwest flow aloft should bring some of those
thunderstorms into the western Panhandles.

On Saturday the upper low moves from Arizona to southeast Colorado
by late Saturday night.  As the upper low approaches and moves just
to our north expect even more low level moisture to be brought
northward and this combined with the upper level dynamics moving
across should provide the stage for numerous showers and
thunderstorms Saturday into Saturday night.  It will be interesting
to see if this cutoff low actually tracks northeast from Arizona or
if it will take more of an easterly track and then lift northeast as
it moves out onto the plains.  There is not much of a kicker
upstream to help lift the system out and it does seem to be
completely cut off from the upper flow which would also lend to more
of an easterly track before lifting.  If the upper low can move more
easterly, then we may see an even better chance at getting richer
moisture back and we may have a better sheared environment.  In
fact, looking at the inter-quartile of the surface based CAPE for
Saturday afternoon in the LREF shows an almost 1000j/kg range across
much of the western 2/3rds of the Panhandles.

The upper level system pulls away from the Panhandles early Sunday
morning and a cold front moves through effectively turning off the
precip.

Monday should be a dry day in between systems.  Another system then
moves southeastward across the Panhandles on Tuesday which could
bring another round of precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

VFR sky conditions are forecast at all sites throughout the
period. Much lighter winds are in store, turning around the dial
through the period at 5-15 kts.

Harrel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                96  68  96  68 /   0   0   0  10
Beaver OK                  95  62  98  68 /   0   0  10  20
Boise City OK              87  57  91  61 /   0   0  10  30
Borger TX                 100  67 100  69 /   0   0   0  10
Boys Ranch TX              95  65  96  65 /   0   0  10  20
Canyon TX                  95  66  95  65 /   0   0   0  10
Clarendon TX               97  69  97  68 /  10   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 91  59  91  60 /   0   0  10  30
Guymon OK                  92  58  95  64 /   0   0  10  20
Hereford TX                96  66  95  65 /   0   0  10  10
Lipscomb TX                98  67  99  70 /   0   0  10  10
Pampa TX                   97  66  96  68 /   0   0   0  10
Shamrock TX                99  70  98  69 /  10   0   0   0
Wellington TX             100  71 100  69 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...38