183
FXUS64 KAMA 230827
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
327 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 322 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

- Thunderstorms possible in the southeast along a cold front.
  Storms should stay below severe levels.

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Upper level low that brought us all of the rain over the weekend
will continue to shear apart as it moves northeast through the
Midwest. Next upper level trough is expected to drop south-
southeastward out of the Canadian Prairies and into northern
Missouri/southern Iowa by late Tuesday afternoon.  The flow over the
Panhandles will be northerly on the back side of this trough.  A
vort max is expected to move through this flow and it is expected to
clip our eastern areas Tuesday afternoon.  This vort max coupled
with a cold front may provide enough lift to produce showers and
thunderstorms across the southeast Texas Panhandle Tuesday afternoon
and evening.

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

The upper level trough to our northeast is expected to close off
into an upper level low by Wednesday night and it is expected to get
cutoff from the upper flow.  Then the upper low is expected engulf a
hurricane that moves northward through the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Meanwhile, an upper level ridge will remain parked over the central
and southern Rockies through the period.  The Panhandles will remain
in a northerly flow between these two upper level features.  This
upper level pattern should keep the Panhandles dry Wednesday through
Sunday and it will keep high temperatures around or just above
average.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Light and variable winds are expected to become south to
southwest at 6 to 10 knots by the late morning or early afternoon.
Skies are expected to remain VFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                78  55  84  53 /   0   0  20   0
Beaver OK                  73  48  79  49 /   0   0  10   0
Boise City OK              76  50  77  48 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  81  54  87  53 /   0   0  10   0
Boys Ranch TX              79  52  84  51 /   0   0  10   0
Canyon TX                  77  53  84  51 /   0   0  20   0
Clarendon TX               76  54  86  55 /   0   0  20  10
Dalhart TX                 76  49  78  47 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  75  47  79  47 /   0   0  10   0
Hereford TX                80  53  85  52 /   0   0  10   0
Lipscomb TX                75  52  83  52 /   0   0  20   0
Pampa TX                   77  53  83  52 /   0   0  20  10
Shamrock TX                76  54  86  55 /   0   0  20  20
Wellington TX              78  55  88  57 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...15