544
FXUS64 KAMA 190749
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
249 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

As of the latest 07Z observations, we continue to watch very heavy
rainfall rates from thunderstorms training within a vicinity of a
surface boundary in the wake of a slow south moving cold front.
This overrunning set up with decent H850 southerly flow advecting
north over the front for thunderstorms to develop could linger
past sunrise. In fact, as this front continues to move slowly
south throughout the day, the focal point of this storm, in-
conjunction with any other surface boundary collisions, i.e. the
dryline now currently across eastern New Mexico will be the focus
for convection later this afternoon, especially favoring areas
currently not experiencing heavy rain for later on. At this time,
the best chance for a severe thunderstorm this afternoon should be
areas closest to the TX/NM stateline where large hail, damaging
winds, and flash flooding will be the main hazards. CAPE values of
1000-2000 J/kg, effective shear around 20-25 kts and PWAT values
over an inch should result in thunderstorm chances with heavy
rainfall rates at times. Rain chances overall for the central and
western TX Panhandle where the best chances exist should wrap up
by midnight tonight as the main areas for lift move south and west
of the CWA. High temperatures will be below average for late June
with highs in the 70s/80s, but with Td values well into the 60s,
it will fell quite muggy outside today.

Instability drops off quite a bit for tomorrow, and so will our
overall rain chances. Showers and thunderstorms due to diurnal
heating are still expected. However, the periphery of the main
H700-500 high pressure system will move further west into the
eastern combined Panhandles. This will shift the better moisture
transport axis further to the west and south mainly into the Texas
South Plains and eastern New Mexico. We still cannot completely
rule out thunderstorm chances for the southern and western Texas
Panhandle by tomorrow afternoon, but overall severe chances remain
low at this time. High temperatures tomorrow will remain cooler
than average but also still muggy with highs ranging from the
upper 70s in the western TX Panhandle where rain chances are
highest to upper 80s in the eastern Panhandles where chances are
the lowest.

Meccariello

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

As the tropical system from the Gulf Coast moves further NW along
the Rio Grande with its more apparent anemic moisture source with
time, rain chances will drop off for the Panhandles, with the
potential exception of the far western TX Panhandle, near the
best axis of moisture transport. Otherwise, under the H500 high
pressure as it shifts from east to west across the southern CONUS,
a nice day for most areas with high temperatures near average.

Starting Saturday through the remainder of the long term forecast
period, latest 19/00Z model and numerical guidance shows a quasi
stationary H500 high pressure system in New Mexico. This will
allow diurnally convection to develop based off a series of dirty
ridge rollers that move off the NM/CO high terrain and into the
Plains. Daily chances for thunderstorms are the result of this
pattern. Chances overall are not that high (~30%), but each day
favors the north central and northwestern combined Panhandles for
thunderstorms in mean H500 NW flow, where strong wind gusts and
locally heavy rainfall will be main hazard with any robust
thunderstorm. High temperatures from this weekend into next week
should be above average for late June.

Meccariello

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

VFR conditions to start the 06Z TAF period at KAMA/KDHT and IFR
conditions currently to start the TAF period at KGUY. +TSRA is
expected for the first 1 to 3 hours of the TAF period for KGUY.
Could see some TSRA conditions at KDHT as well before 12Z, and
will AMD accordingly. MVFR cigs expected past 09Z at all TAF
sites throughout the remainder of the TAF period, with some IFR
cigs at times. Winds will be out of the southeast at 10-15 kts.
The exception could be for TSRA conditions over TAF sites with
strong and erratic winds at times. Could see VCTS conditions
continuing at times for KDHT/KGUY through around 18Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                86  64  81  66 /  30  40  30  30
Beaver OK                  86  64  87  66 /  60  30  10  10
Boise City OK              78  60  83  62 /  60  40  20  20
Borger TX                  91  67  87  69 /  50  40  30  20
Boys Ranch TX              88  64  84  65 /  50  50  30  40
Canyon TX                  85  63  79  64 /  30  40  30  40
Clarendon TX               85  64  78  65 /  20  20  30  20
Dalhart TX                 84  60  83  62 /  60  50  30  30
Guymon OK                  82  62  85  65 /  60  40  10  10
Hereford TX                87  64  80  65 /  30  40  40  40
Lipscomb TX                88  65  86  67 /  50  20  20  10
Pampa TX                   86  64  82  66 /  40  30  20  20
Shamrock TX                88  66  83  67 /  20  20  30  20
Wellington TX              88  67  83  68 /  10  20  30  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...29