963
FXUS64 KAMA 150456
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1156 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 945 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Thunderstorms and showers continue across the central and western
Panhandles late this evening. Storm intensity has decreased over
the last hour or two and the Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been
cancelled early. Attention now turns to the potential for moderate
to heavy rainfall to continue into the overnight hours. Models
continue to indicate that showers and storms may train over the
southwestern Texas Panhandle overnight which could lead to
isolated flash flooding should rain rates be in the 1 to 2 inches
per hour range. Storms are forming across east central New Mexico
as the better upper level dynamics start to move across and these
storms will move into the southwest overnight. Increased PoPs
across the southwest through the overnight hours with this
forecast update based on hi-res guidance and observational trends.

Muscha

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Our active synoptic pattern continues as a trough moves across
the central CONUS and the high pressure center at the H500 level
transitions eastward. More perturbations will exit lee side of
the Rocky Mountains and move in from the northwest generating
additional chances for thunderstorms heading into the weekend.

High temperatures today and tomorrow will range in the 90`s; and
with excellent moisture retention, humidity should generally be
on the higher side through the weekend. Thunderstorm activity will
also continue, especially for our northern zones, through the
short term period. In the afternoon each day, sufficient
instability and shear will be present for storms to become severe.
Damaging winds, torrential rainfall, and some hail will continue
to be the primary hazards. Places that have already received much
rainfall over these past few days may begin or continue to see
flooding risks.

Today, showers and thunderstorms are diminishing from our morning
convection. A new shortwave trough will move through from the
northwest and clusters of storms will enter the CWA later this
evening. Cold pools and early outflow from our previous convection
have a chance to hinder our severe potential. However, showers
should still occur given our favorable Theta-E profiles
positioned in the western CWA. After sunset, thunderstorm
endeavors should should taper off but showers can persist
overnight and into the morning hours.

Saturday, a new southwest oriented trough will impact the
combined Panhandles but coverage may be more limited unless
today`s setup under performs. And with this more traditional
spring time regime progged from our mesoscale features,
thunderstorm timing will be a bit earlier in the afternoon and
evening.

Rangel

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Mostly dry conditions are expected to start the long term forecast
period. Latest 14/12Z model and numerical data shows a pronounced
sinusoidal synoptic pattern across the entire CONUS. Focusing on
the southern High Plains, H500 SW flow will help with LL
subsidence and keep the Panhandles mostly dry. By mid week next
week, as the main H500 anti-cyclonic feature over the eastern
2/3 CONUS expands back to the west, perturbations in the mid
levels should help to generate showers and thunderstorms. These
perturbations should allow very good low to mid level moisture
transport from the Gulf to reach the Panhandles. Better rain
chances return from mid week next week to the end of the forecast
period. Some storms could be strong, and with repeated rounds of
low level moisture with PWAT values in the 99th percentile for
June standards, we will have to watch the potential for flooding
during this time period.

Meccariello

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

VFR conditions are anticipated through this forecast period.
Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing at KAMA and KGUY and should
cease by around 09z and 06z respectively. Showers may linger in
the morning hours, but confidence in the impacts to the terminals
is low at this time. Another round of showers and thunderstorms
are possible tomorrow afternoon, but details about the extent of
coverage and timing are uncertain at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                97  65  91  66 /  10  80  30  30
Beaver OK                  97  68  92  67 /   0  30  30  30
Boise City OK              85  60  92  63 /  40  90  10  10
Borger TX                  97  69  95  68 /  10  70  30  30
Boys Ranch TX              95  65  92  66 /  20  90  20  20
Canyon TX                  93  65  90  64 /  10  80  30  30
Clarendon TX               93  68  90  66 /   0  40  20  20
Dalhart TX                 86  61  90  62 /  30  90  20  20
Guymon OK                  91  64  92  65 /  40  80  20  20
Hereford TX                96  65  92  66 /  10  80  30  20
Lipscomb TX                97  69  93  69 /   0  20  30  30
Pampa TX                   95  68  89  66 /   0  50  30  30
Shamrock TX                96  69  93  69 /   0  10  10  20
Wellington TX              96  70  94  71 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...52