Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
816 FXUS64 KAMA 231715 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1215 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM ... (Today through Monday night) Issued at 350 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Other than a few isolated showers or thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, quiet weather looks to prevail today and tomorrow across the region. High temperatures will continue to slowly climb up into the 90s to just over 100 degrees over the coming days. Early this morning, scattered high clouds remain across the region and temperatures have dropped into the upper 60s to mid 70s so far. Unfortunately, this morning may be one of the cooler mornings of the next week as the first long lived heat wave of the summer is likely and will begin today and tomorrow. As a H300 trough digs across the Great Lakes today, the upper level high pressure will slowly be pushed off to the west today, but with the center of high pressure still to the south of the forecast area. With high pressure still in place over the Panhandles, the overall flow aloft will remain weak with H500 winds forecast to be around 10 to 15 kts. Ample mid level moisture should remain in place across the area today for mid to high level clouds to remain across the area and a few showers or storms may be able to form with any subtle disturbances or convective temperatures being hit this afternoon. Current thoughts are that if any convection gets started today, it will be similar to yesterday with only a few showers or storms developing during peak heating late this afternoon. With that being said, have kept PoP mentions fairly low for today with only the west having a 15 to 25 percent chance of seeing a shower or storm develop. High temperatures today will continue to slowly rise and some of the known hotter areas may reach the triple digit mark today. Going into Monday, the center of high pressure should continue slowly drifting off to the west and this pattern will start to show some semblance of west to northwest flow aloft. The flow will start to look very typical for summer time here in the southern US, with very weak winds aloft. Main difference from today to Monday looks to be a leeside low should be able to develop by mid day across the higher terrain and winds will be breezy out of the southwest. This will aid in starting to dry out the surface with dew points a bit lower across the region on Monday. These winds will also aid in bringing in stronger WAA and H850 temperatures should increase over 30 Celsius by late afternoon. More locations will likely hit the triple digit mark on Monday with this current set up expected across the High Plains. Will need to keep a close eye on Palo Duro Canyon, as temperatures may once again reach Heat Advisory criteria on Monday afternoon. Currently not expecting any showers or storms on Monday given the southwest winds beginning to dry out the lower levels and any weak disturbances look to remain west of the CWA based on latest guidance. Muscha && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 350 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Little change was made to the long term periods compared to what was assessed in the numerical weather models 24 hours ago. The aforementioned upper level ridge of high pressure will continue to be the overall dominant feature in our weather pattern from Tuesday through Saturday. This will result in above normal temperatures during this time frame. Given the strength of this ridge, high temperatures across many locations will likely approach or exceed 100 degrees on one or more days of the extended periods. Heat Index values may approach or exceed 105 degrees at times, most likely on Tuesday, Wednesday, and perhaps Friday across parts of the area. Heat Advisories may be needed on one or more of those days as well. Precipitation chances Tuesday through Saturday will strongly depend on the strength of the upper level high pressure as well as how much of our forecast area sits beneath it. Most medium range models continue to suggest periodic meandering of the ridge axis during the extended periods. NBM pops and temperatures look reasonable given the forecast synoptic pattern and were accepted with no adjustments necessary for this package. 02 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1209 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours with winds 15 kts or less. A passing shower and perhaps a thunderstorm is possible at KDHT as early as 21z lasting through around 06z. Details will become more refined as that time frame approaches, but have left thunderstorm mentions out due to very low confidence in when or if a thunderstorm will impact the terminal. Amendments may be needed if confidence is increases in a thunderstorm impacting the terminal. Vanden Bosch && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 73 97 74 100 / 10 0 0 10 Beaver OK 73 101 74 103 / 10 0 10 0 Boise City OK 69 98 69 100 / 10 10 0 10 Borger TX 76 104 78 106 / 10 0 10 10 Boys Ranch TX 73 100 74 103 / 20 0 0 10 Canyon TX 70 96 73 98 / 10 0 0 10 Clarendon TX 71 96 73 98 / 10 0 0 0 Dalhart TX 68 99 67 101 / 20 0 0 10 Guymon OK 71 100 71 102 / 10 0 10 0 Hereford TX 70 98 74 100 / 10 0 0 10 Lipscomb TX 75 101 76 103 / 10 0 10 10 Pampa TX 74 98 74 100 / 10 0 0 10 Shamrock TX 73 99 74 100 / 10 0 0 0 Wellington TX 73 100 75 100 / 0 0 0 0 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....02 AVIATION...52