118
FXUS64 KAMA 281146
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
646 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 415 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

High pressure over most of the area continues through the short
term period. As the center of the upper ridge slowly transitions
east, further opportunities for showers and thunderstorms will be
had. All the while, temperatures will stay above average.
Dynamics in the mid levels and at the surface will dictate who
will be impacted thunderstorms and how hot afternoon highs will be
for both days.

Friday, temperatures and heat index values may reach 105 degrees
in the eastern Panhandles and Palo Duro Canyon once again.
Therefore, a Heat Advisory has been issued in those areas for the
afternoon and early evening hours. Surface temperatures themselves
may not quite reach 105; however, higher low to mid 60`s
dewpoints in those areas should allow heat index values to meet or
exceed 105 degrees. The only other potential hindrance would be
cloud coverage in those zones this afternoon. Based off short term
guidance, it appears FEW to SCT cloud decks are possible but it
should not be enough to hinder daytime highs from approaching the
mid 100`s. Other places in the CWA can anticipate highs in the
upper 90`s to low 100`s.

Thunderstorm chances tonight are restricted mostly for the
northern zones. Confidence in afternoon and evening convection
has decreased due to some persistent mid level CIN and later
timing of our shortwave trough moving across the High Plains. Most
CAMs do not favor convection even after the trough moves through,
but model ensembles and deterministic guidance suggest storms will
eventually form ahead of the trough. Once that does occur,
isolated showers and general thunderstorms can be expected late
this evening. This activity should subside shortly after midnight.

Saturday, a cold front will extend down into our our CWA by the
afternoon hours. As the front moves south, this will allow for
slightly cooler daytime highs and thunderstorm chances across most
of the combined Panhandles. The overall environment will also
support a few storms to become strong to severe. High
instability, steep lapse rates, and modest bulk shear should allow
storms to pose a damaging wind threat. 500mb temperatures are
still very warm, which dissuades large hail but it cannot be
completely ruled out. The equilibrium level also extends high in
the atmosphere, between the 200-150 mb. This purposes the
prospect of flash flooding, especially in areas that are still
recovering from previous floods.

Rangel

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 415 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

As the axis of the 500mb ridge moves east, monsoonal flow should
reactivate over the area in the mid to late periods of the
extended. High temperatures will fluctuate on a daily basis due
to these ventures, and on days without frontal passages and active
precipitation, the low to mid triple digits will return.

Sunday, post frontal highs will range in the upper 80`s and 90`s
with help from lingering showers in the morning hours.
Afterwards, quite weather will resume and continue into Monday;
though Monday`s highs should re-enter the 90`s and 100`s due to
the lack of clouds and precipitation.

Tuesday onward, mid to long range guidance show multiple waves of
precipitation for the rest of the extended. Considering how this
will influence mesoscale features on a day to day basis, NBM
values we accepted to capture the best outlook for our current
forecast. However, exact deterministic values will likely change
over time as we approach the coming days.

Rangel

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

TAFs continue as VFR through the 12Z period. Breezy surface winds
may be had at all sites this morning, but strong winds will
develop and prolong at AMA until the evening hours. Sustained
winds between 20-25 kts with gusts up to 35 kts are still
likely. Later tonight, a PROB30 group has been introduced for the
GUY TAF site. Late night thunderstorm activity may be had there
for a few hours and should subside after 06Z. Breezy overnight
winds may return to all sites until the end of the period.

Rangel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX               100  73  97  71 /  10  20  20  50
Beaver OK                 102  70  90  66 /  10  30  20  60
Boise City OK              97  65  86  63 /  10  20  30  60
Borger TX                 105  75 100  72 /  10  30  20  60
Boys Ranch TX             102  72  95  69 /  10  20  20  60
Canyon TX                 100  72  95  70 /  10  10  20  50
Clarendon TX              101  76  98  72 /  10  10  20  40
Dalhart TX                100  67  90  65 /   0  10  20  60
Guymon OK                 101  68  88  65 /   0  30  20  60
Hereford TX               102  72  97  71 /   0  10  20  50
Lipscomb TX               104  72  96  69 /  10  30  20  60
Pampa TX                  102  73  97  70 /  10  20  20  50
Shamrock TX               104  77 100  72 /  10  10  20  40
Wellington TX             104  78 101  75 /  10  10  10  40

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for TXZ005-010-015-020-317.

OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...55