845
FXUS64 KAMA 281732
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1232 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 415 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

High pressure over most of the area continues through the short
term period. As the center of the upper ridge slowly transitions
east, further opportunities for showers and thunderstorms will be
had. All the while, temperatures will stay above average.
Dynamics in the mid levels and at the surface will dictate who
will be impacted thunderstorms and how hot afternoon highs will be
for both days.

Friday, temperatures and heat index values may reach 105 degrees
in the eastern Panhandles and Palo Duro Canyon once again.
Therefore, a Heat Advisory has been issued in those areas for the
afternoon and early evening hours. Surface temperatures themselves
may not quite reach 105; however, higher low to mid 60`s
dewpoints in those areas should allow heat index values to meet or
exceed 105 degrees. The only other potential hindrance would be
cloud coverage in those zones this afternoon. Based off short term
guidance, it appears FEW to SCT cloud decks are possible but it
should not be enough to hinder daytime highs from approaching the
mid 100`s. Other places in the CWA can anticipate highs in the
upper 90`s to low 100`s.

Thunderstorm chances tonight are restricted mostly for the
northern zones. Confidence in afternoon and evening convection
has decreased due to some persistent mid level CIN and later
timing of our shortwave trough moving across the High Plains. Most
CAMs do not favor convection even after the trough moves through,
but model ensembles and deterministic guidance suggest storms will
eventually form ahead of the trough. Once that does occur,
isolated showers and general thunderstorms can be expected late
this evening. This activity should subside shortly after midnight.

Saturday, a cold front will extend down into our our CWA by the
afternoon hours. As the front moves south, this will allow for
slightly cooler daytime highs and thunderstorm chances across most
of the combined Panhandles. The overall environment will also
support a few storms to become strong to severe. High
instability, steep lapse rates, and modest bulk shear should allow
storms to pose a damaging wind threat. 500mb temperatures are
still very warm, which dissuades large hail but it cannot be
completely ruled out. The equilibrium level also extends high in
the atmosphere, between the 200-150 mb. This purposes the
prospect of flash flooding, especially in areas that are still
recovering from previous floods.

Rangel

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 415 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

As the axis of the 500mb ridge moves east, monsoonal flow should
reactivate over the area in the mid to late periods of the
extended. High temperatures will fluctuate on a daily basis due
to these ventures, and on days without frontal passages and active
precipitation, the low to mid triple digits will return.

Sunday, post frontal highs will range in the upper 80`s and 90`s
with help from lingering showers in the morning hours.
Afterwards, quite weather will resume and continue into Monday;
though Monday`s highs should re-enter the 90`s and 100`s due to
the lack of clouds and precipitation.

Tuesday onward, mid to long range guidance show multiple waves of
precipitation for the rest of the extended. Considering how this
will influence mesoscale features on a day to day basis, NBM
values we accepted to capture the best outlook for our current
forecast. However, exact deterministic values will likely change
over time as we approach the coming days.

Rangel

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Breezy southwesterly winds are expected to continue at the
terminals through the afternoon and evening with the arrival of
the upper-level trough seeing winds slow. Potential for showers
still do exist for late this evening and overnight hours with KGUY
the more likely terminal to see any impacts. However, latest high
resolutions models are starting to back off the potential with
most models now seeing chances below 20%. Given this, have removed
the Prob-30 from the KGUY TAF grouping for this package.
Otherwise, VFR conditions should hold at all terminals for this
package.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                73  97  71  92 /  10  30  50  30
Beaver OK                  70  90  66  88 /  20  20  60  30
Boise City OK              65  86  63  88 /  20  30  60  30
Borger TX                  75 100  72  95 /  10  30  50  30
Boys Ranch TX              72  95  69  95 /  10  30  50  20
Canyon TX                  72  95  70  92 /  10  20  40  20
Clarendon TX               76  98  72  92 /  10  20  30  30
Dalhart TX                 67  90  65  92 /  10  30  60  30
Guymon OK                  68  88  65  88 /  20  20  60  30
Hereford TX                72  97  71  94 /  10  20  40  20
Lipscomb TX                72  96  69  90 /  20  20  50  30
Pampa TX                   73  97  70  91 /  10  30  50  30
Shamrock TX                77 100  72  94 /  10  20  30  30
Wellington TX              78 101  75  96 /  10  10  30  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ005-010-015-020-
     317.

OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...11