Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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227 FXUS64 KAMA 121710 AAB AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1210 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM ... (Today through Thursday night) Issued at 249 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 A high pressure system is pushing across the panhandles becoming the dominate feature across the southern plains. This will keep drier air over the panhandles today leading to fair weather. There is a small exception this morning as moisture at the surface is proving sufficient to cause some patchy fog. This fog should be fairly shallow and quickly evaporate after sunrise. Thursday may see a small shift in the fair weather as some mid level moisture pushes across the panhandles. This small amount of moisture can spark off a few isolated rain showers and thunderstorms. Being that this is mid level moisture the bases of any rain shower or thunderstorm would be very high and sitting a top a large sub cloud dry layer. This would make it more likely that instead of any meaningful rainfall these would cause gusty downbursts instead. Temperatures under the high pressure system will be on the rise with highs today in the 80s to 90s. These will increase for Thursday with highs in the 90s to 100s. In fact the warmest spots such as the Canadian River valley and Palo Duro Canyon will get close to Heat Advisory levels. Even if it doesn`t get that hot it will still be best to practise heat safety as heat illness can still occur. SH && .LONG TERM ... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 249 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 The long-term period begins Friday morning when an upper-level ridge will be set up over the Panhandles. Friday looks to be another hot day across the area, though not as hot as Thursday as temperatures will reach into the 90s. An upper-level trough begins to approach the Panhandles Friday evening and thunderstorms are expected to develop to the west in New Mexico in the higher terrain. Forcing associated with the trough should help maintain a chance for showers and thunderstorms through Friday night across the Panhandles, but the higher chances are more in the western Panhandles. Not expecting much more than elevated thunderstorms given limited instability. Saturday looks a few degrees cooler than Friday, but still looking at highs in the low to mid-90s across the area. With the current timing of the trough, there is a chance for showers and thunderstorms to develop in the northeastern Panhandles Saturday evening as the upper-level trough moves away. Again, instability looks limited thus not expecting anything more than elevated thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show relatively high PWATs around 1.30" to 1.60" and high freezing levels which would favor heavy rain. Temperatures warm back up to the mid to upper-90s on Sunday as an upper-level trough dips into the Western US. The trough moves eastward Monday and lee cyclogenesis occurs in northeastern Colorado, creating a surface low somewhere in the 980mb-990mb range. This creates a steep surface pressure gradient across the region, making for a breezy Monday. Chances for rain do not look promising as the track of the trough (and any chance for meaningful forcing mechanisms) is well to the north of the Panhandles. Depending on how the trough departs, there is a low chance that the favorable forcing associated with being in the right entrance region of the jet streak could provide enough forcing for a shower or thunderstorm in the northern Panhandles Monday night. Looking at another day with highs in the 90s for Tuesday as southwesterly flow aloft continues to dominate. Subtle shortwaves in the flow aloft may provide enough forcing for a chance for thunderstorms through Tuesday night. Vanden Bosch && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1209 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Skies are expected to remain VFR. South and southwest winds at around 15 knots with higher gusts will tend to veer some this evening and decrease to 10 to 15 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 66 101 68 95 / 0 0 10 10 Beaver OK 68 103 67 99 / 0 0 20 0 Boise City OK 64 103 64 96 / 10 10 10 30 Borger TX 69 103 70 99 / 0 0 20 10 Boys Ranch TX 67 103 69 98 / 0 0 20 10 Canyon TX 65 100 67 94 / 0 0 10 10 Clarendon TX 64 96 67 92 / 0 0 10 0 Dalhart TX 63 102 64 96 / 0 10 20 20 Guymon OK 66 103 65 97 / 0 10 20 10 Hereford TX 66 101 67 95 / 0 0 10 10 Lipscomb TX 67 102 68 97 / 0 0 10 0 Pampa TX 66 100 68 94 / 0 0 10 0 Shamrock TX 66 97 67 94 / 0 0 10 0 Wellington TX 66 98 68 95 / 0 0 0 0 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...98 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...15