371
FXUS64 KAMA 161923
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
223 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 219 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

- Non-severe thunderstorms will be possible across the eastern
  Panhandles and the far western Panhandles this afternoon and
  evening.

- Severe thunderstorms will be possible across the western half of
  the Panhandles Tuesday afternoon and evening. Damaging winds
  will be the main threats. However a hailstone to the size of a
  quarter can not be ruled out.

- Thunderstorms may linger in the southeast Wednesday with more
  storms Friday and Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 219 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Isolated thunderstorms  will be possible across the eastern
Panhandles this afternoon and evening along a surface trough which
extends from just east of Guymon to Claude.  This is where the best
instability and shear exists.  A shower or thunderstorm may graze
the far western Panhandles this evening in association with a weak
short wave trough moving northeast through New Mexico.

We should have a much better chance of showers and thunderstorms
Tuesday and Tuesday night.  The base of a negatively tiled trough is
expected to move northeast across the Panhandles Tuesday afternoon
and evening.  This trough is expected to spark a line of
thunderstorms over eastern New Mexico Tuesday afternoon and with
time, these storms are expected to move across the western
Panhandles.  It is in question just how far east these storms can
move into the central and eastern Panhandles as shear and
instability will be weaker there.  Some of the storms may become
severe with hail to the size of quarters and damaging wind gusts
mainly across the western half of the Panhandles where the shear and
instability are expected to be the greatest with the passing short
wave.

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 219 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Thunderstorms will be possible across the eastern Panhandles on
Wednesday as enough instability and shear may linger ahead of a
surface trough.  But these storms should quickly move off into
western Oklahoma during the evening hours.

There may be a lull in thunderstorms on Thursday as an upper level
ridge starts to build northward.  But more showers and thunderstorms
will be possible Friday and Saturday as the ridge moves off to the
east and allows an upper level low to approach from the west.  This
low will still be to the west of our area on Friday, but the
instability will increase along with the shear to help thunderstorm
development.  The upper level low is expected to move across the
region Saturday night which will help to keep showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast with the colder air moving across
aloft to help with the instability.  Then showers and thunderstorms
are expected to end by Sunday as the upper level system moves east
away from our area.

High temperatures will generally be above normal Tuesday through
Friday with readings in the 80`s and 90`s.  Highs should then cool
back into the 70`s and 80`s for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through this forecast. A
thunderstorm may get close to AMA this afternoon, but at this
time, believe it will form to the east of the terminal. Gusty
southerly winds will decrease to 10 to 15 knots this evening.
Southerly winds will then pick back up again into the 15 to 20
knot range with higher gusts by late Tuesday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                65  91  64  93 /  20  10  50  20
Beaver OK                  64  93  63  94 /  20  10  50  10
Boise City OK              61  88  57  87 /  10  30  50   0
Borger TX                  67  96  65  97 /  20  10  50  20
Boys Ranch TX              63  92  63  93 /  10  30  60  10
Canyon TX                  63  90  62  92 /  20  20  50  10
Clarendon TX               65  92  65  94 /  20   0  30  20
Dalhart TX                 60  88  57  88 /  10  30  60   0
Guymon OK                  63  92  60  92 /  10  20  60   0
Hereford TX                63  91  63  93 /  10  20  60  10
Lipscomb TX                66  93  65  95 /  20   0  30  20
Pampa TX                   65  92  64  93 /  20  10  40  20
Shamrock TX                64  93  66  95 /  20   0  30  20
Wellington TX              65  95  67  97 /  20   0  20  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...15