Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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121 FXUS63 KAPX 231045 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 645 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chances of shower and possibly a few thunderstorms... especially this afternoon and evening - Near seasonal temperatures with periodic shower and thunderstorm chances through this week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 255 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Lingering chances of showers and storms today into this evening... High Impact Weather Potential...The chance for non-severe thunderstorms will linger today into this evening. Complex area of low pressure continues to make its way eastward thru Lower Michigan early this morning. Area of widespread convection that impacted Northern Lower Michigan last night has exited our CWA...taking with it the potential for heavy rainfall. In coordination with both GRR and DTX...have cancelled the Flood Warning for all of Northern Lower Michigan. Another area of widespread shower activity is pivoting thru Upper Michigan attm driven by an upper level trough axis combined with wrap-around moisture on the back side of the surface low. Surface low center will push thru Lake Huron this morning...reaching SW Quebec this afternoon. A stronger upper level trough axis will swing thru Northern Michigan this afternoon and evening...and combined with another shot of synoptic moisture...with extend chances of showers and possibly a few storms thru this evening across much of Northern Michigan. Greatest chances of precip will be across Eastern Upper...far Northern and NE Lower Michigan this afternoon into early evening where lift and moisture will be maximized during peak diurnal heating/instability. Lack of sufficient instability will preclude any possibility of strong/severe storms. High temps this afternoon will be mainly in the upper 60s to lower 70s... with low temps tonight cooling into the 50s across most of our CWA. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 255 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Northwest will be overhead as a closed low exits the state and continues east Monday. Drier air will be moving in, allowing sunny skies and temperatures to warm in the afternoon hours. A northern Rockies lee side trough will move straight east as zonal flow alfot over the northern CONUS carries it towards the northern Plains. Warm sector rain will spread out over northern MI late Monday night and last into Tuesday morning. Moisture amounts will not be as high as they were this past event (mean PW values around 1.4") however moderate and heavy rain could be seen with more convective storms. Around 1,000 - 2,500 j/kg of MUCAPE exists with 100 - 200 SRH. However the timing of this next system will impact the scenario that unfolds. At the moment global deterministic guidance is trending towards the surface low moving through more overnight Monday into early Tuesday, with the cold front through by Tuesday afternoon. Earlier runs have shown a slower track, allowing more of that instability to be surface based. The first scenario would result in mostly scattered to numerous rain showers will isolated embedded thunder. The second holds higher chances for better coverage of thunderstorms which could be in an environment capable of producing some severe threats. We will be keeping an eye on how things trend for Tuesday. As the surface low exits, more quick moving upper level waves will reach down from Canada and bring more rounds of rain chances to northern MI through next weekend. A day or two of warming and drying in between each system. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 645 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Low pressure will continue to track eastward out of Lower Michigan this morning...replaced by an upper level trough axis swinging thru Northern Michigan this afternoon and evening. Chances of showers and possibly an isold thunderstorm will remain in the forecast thru this evening. IFR/MVFR conditions will persist across our area today into this evening...with some improvement to low VFR expected later this evening as high pressure and drier air begin to move into our region in the wake of the upper level trough axis. Surface winds will remain from the N/NW at 10 to 20 kts. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT this evening for LHZ347>349. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323- 342-344. && $$ SHORT TERM...MLR LONG TERM...ELD AVIATION...MLR