844
FXUS63 KAPX 171826
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
226 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm temperatures and rain-free through the end of the week,
  leading to elevated fire danger at times.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 203 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Rather benign and mundane pattern through Wednesday with large scale
ridging aloft and sfc high pressure just to the east. Strong low
level heating, deep mixing, and dry sfc conditions will result in
high fire danger, however.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Ridging aloft and sfc high pressure to the east will keep northern
Michigan dry tonight into Wednesday. Thus, expect a typically cooler
night across low spots among hilly terrain and within river valleys
as cool air drains and pools in these locations. Could have
isolated spots of fog consequently. Anomalous high pressure
correlates to anomalous warmth, with temperatures remaining in
the 80s on Wednesday. Dry and warm low levels, deep mixing, and
dry vegetation will result in high fire danger on Wednesday.
Displaced pressure gradient to the west and thus light winds
over northern Michigan preclude any more significant fire
weather concerns, although erratic fire behavior would be
possible given the aforementioned variables, in a conditional
sense.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 203 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

The pattern remains pretty consistent with high pressure situated
overhead with a few low pressure systems tracking around the
Northwoods. Warm temperatures, light winds, and hazy skies will
persist through at least Thursday. Temperatures through the long-
term will stay above normal (80s) until possibly next week slightly
cooler (70s) look to try and creep into the area. Cloud cover will
begin to fill in Friday as the next chances for rain looks to be
Friday night into Saturday. With the atmosphere very dry from the
lack of moisture brought into the region, anything that falls Friday
night into Saturday is not expected to amount to much, and could
potentially just end up being virga for most areas. Guidance
continues to struggle with the next chances for precipitation with
some hinting at precipitation Saturday and some Sunday/ Monday. Stay
tuned as we continue to fine tune these details in the coming
forecast cycles.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 128 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Mainly VFR through the period, although isolated pockets of FG will
be possible tonight into early Wednesday morning, especially
across southeast portions of northern lower Michigan. Winds
light AOB 5 to 10KTs through Wednesday, direction 090-150.
Clouds SKC- SCT250 generally. Dry conditions persist.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLD
LONG TERM...NSC
AVIATION...JLD