Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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008 FXUS63 KAPX 111853 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 253 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered showers possible tonight. - Chances for showers and thunderstorms Thursday. Marginal risk for severe storm development. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 251 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Mid-level ridge axis currently in place from the mid-MS Valley northeast through the Great Lakes into northern Ontario and Quebec. Upstream troughing evident over the upper MS Valley with closed upper-level low pressure over Manitoba. Attendant surface low just east of the upper wave...centered near the Manitoba/Ontario border with a cold front draped across MN into western IA/NE. Low pressure continues to drift east to near Hudson Bay by Wednesday morning with that upstream frontal boundary losing steam as it approaches the western Great Lakes tonight. Forecast Details: Lots of sun across northern Michigan early this afternoon, gradually becoming more filtered with time as high clouds steadily increase from west to east. While clouds thicken/lower with time through the evening, shower chances remain much more uncertain given a loss of appreciable forcing as the primary mid-level support outruns the surface boundary with that boundary essentially washing out overhead by early Wednesday. None the less, isolated to scattered light rain showers remain a possibility across the forecast area -- initially as early as 00-03z across western areas and after 03z as you head east of Interstate 75. Certainly not much in the way of QPF anticipated with trends really favoring much of the forecast area remaining dry. Partly to mostly sunny skies return for Wednesday with just some daytime cu expected to dot the map. High temperatures continue to rebound as mid-upper level heights build and low-level southerly winds aid to boost temps back into the 80s for much of northern lower. Cooler readings in the 70s near the immediate coasts and across the eastern U.P. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 251 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Pattern Synopsis/Pattern Forecast: Finally headed into a more summer like pattern as we get closer to the summer solstice (June 20th). Seasonable temperatures over the next few days will likely be followed by a more pronounced warmup late this weekend into next week. Details: First order of business is the details of a trough/frontal passage Thursday. The trough will be centered to our north and it will drag a surface cold front across the region at some point on Thursday. The exact timing remains uncertain with guidance continuing to vary. An earlier passage (morning) would limit instability while a later passage (midday or afternoon) would allow for more instability to build and be more favorable for the generation of possible strong to severe storms. At this point the most favorable spot for better storms would appear to be across northeast lower. Moisture surges north out ahead of the front with surface dewpoints increasing into the low 60s and pw values (precipitable water) of 1 to 1.5 inches which could result in locally heavy downpours. In addition, decent wind fields (0-6 km bulk shear of 30 to 40 knots) brings a damaging wind gust threat. Slowly building heights are then expected to lead to uneventful weather conditions Friday into at least Sunday morning. MCS`s (mesoscale convective system) may top the ridge and lead to showers and storms at any point from later Sunday into early next week. Temperatures look rather toasty with uncomfortably high humidity levels starting Sunday on through the remainder of the long term. Of course any convection could limit how warm it actually gets but there is potential for highs of well into the 80s to the mid 90s as 850 mb temperatures possibly surge to around 20C or slightly higher (ECMWF remains more bullish in this regard than the GFS). && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1251 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Clouds will gradually fill in west to east and lower later this afternoon/evening. Trends support most of northern Michigan will stay VFR, but there is a slight chance MVFR conditions could make their way into EUP tonight. Small chances for light showers tonight, but overall coverage and intensity will be minimal. Light winds through the period. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MJG LONG TERM...AJS AVIATION...NSC