Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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135 FXUS63 KAPX 261021 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 621 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chance for a few showers/storms east of I-75 this afternoon. - Quiet weather expected to occupy the majority of the long term period. Chances of showers and storms return Friday night. - Additional shower chances return next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 333 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Pattern Synopsis: Mid/upper-level jet will remain draped over the region through the period as an embedded shortwave pivots across the Great Lakes this morning/afternoon. Forcing aloft provided by this wave will aid a surface pressure response along a lingering front draped across the lower peninsula later today as these features progress eastward into tonight. Surface high pressure then looks to build from the northern Great Plains/central Canada into the Great Lakes by Thursday morning. Forecast Details: Chance for a few showers/storms this afternoon -- Quiet weather will persist across northern Michigan through most of this morning with mostly to partly sunny skies to start the day. At least some uptick in cloud cover is expected as the aforementioned wave moves overhead this afternoon. Enough near-surface convergence may be generated in the vicinity of the lake breeze to initiate a few showers and storms this afternoon. Rain/thunder chances should mainly be confined east of I-75, and highest closer to the Lake Huron shoreline. Severe storms are not anticipated with any activity that develops today. Rain/thunder chances will diminish this evening as high pressure begins to build in, leaving mostly clear skies and weak winds in place tonight. This should promote efficient cooling after sunset, leading to seasonably cool overnight temperatures in the low to mid 40s for many interior areas. Those closer to the lakeshores are expected to see lows around 50. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 333 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Midlevel flow continues to remain over the northern half of the continental U.S. Aformentioned flow will begin to build a longwave ridging pattern over the Great Lakes region for the first half of the forecast period. Surface high pressure will result in quiet and dry weather ahead of a shortwave trough that will return chances of showers and storms to the CWA. Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages: -Quiet weather expected to occupy the majority of the long term period. Chances of showers and storms return Friday night: The long term period starts of quiet and dry as aformentioned surface high pressure will result in sunny skies this Thursday with temps near climatological average. Shortwave troughing currently over the Pacific will ride along midlevel flow making its way to the Great Lakes region by Friday night. Impactful weather from this system remains pretty low primarily due to guidance showing weak shear and low CAPE at this time. Friday into Saturday shows evidence of potential heavy rain being the main focus as PWATs are at climatological max`s for late June. WPC currently has parts of the CWA in a marginal excessive rainfall outlook, but still a little to early to message QPF mainly due potential of energy diving south of the CWA. Regardless, showers and storms Friday night into Saturday can be expected at this time. -Additional shower chances return next week: Another midlevel trough currently over the Gulf of Alaska progresses its way to the Great Lakes region around the Tuesday timeframe while developing surface low pressure lee of the Rockies. Chances of showers and storms return to the Great Lakes region around the Tuesday timeframe. Impacts remain low at this time, but will continue to monitor this feature with future model runs. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 620 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 VFR conditions are expected across northern Michigan through the issuance period. BKN/SCT mid cloud this morning will begin to clear this afternoon and evening, leaving clear skies in place tonight. Mainly northwest winds between 5-10 kts will gust to 15-20 kts into this evening, becoming weak/calm overnight. A few showers/storms will be possible this afternoon across northeast lower Michigan, but are not expected to impact TAF sites at this time should they develop. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DJC LONG TERM...SJC AVIATION...DJC