Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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926 FXUS63 KAPX 251856 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 256 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Small potential for more showers on Wednesday. - Active weather returns this weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 252 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Shortwave trough and its attendant cold front (responsible for this mornings active weather) now off to our east, with post-system subsidence and building surface high pressure having ended the rain threat. Progressive pattern of late set to continue, with weak surface high passing overhead tonight...quickly followed by next shortwave trough and weak surface reflection on Wednesday. Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges: Temperature/cloud trends and addressing that shower threat on Wednesday. Details: Dry conditions expected the rest through tonight as that weak area of high pressure slides overhead. May see some patchy fog tonight with the wet ground from recent rains. Not expecting this to become too significant with maintenance of some light winds. Next wave and attendant weak surface reflection set to arrive on Wednesday. All appreciable moisture and instability will be locked up well to our south, leaving little for the above to work on. However, just enough low level convergence and remnant moisture to perhaps kick off a few showers...especially across northeast lower Michigan where that convergence will be maximized. Shouldn`t be a big deal at all, with most areas and much of the time remaining dry. Definitely a bit cooler tomorrow, with highs only expected to top out in the 60s north of the big bridge, and from the mid 60s north to mid 70s southeast across northern lower Michigan. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 252 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 A ridge of high pressure builds over the Great Lakes Region as a trough swings out of the forecast area by Wednesday night. Dryer weather will persist through the day Friday with climatological temperatures expected (mid to upper 70s/ low 80s). Another trough and its associated low pressure, originating from the west coast, will track to the area by the weekend bringing back active weather. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: - Weekend Precipitation Chances: A longwave trough and its associated low pressure will track towards the Great Lakes Region Friday night/ Saturday bringing active weather back to the forecast area. Guidance is suggesting that an ample amount of moisture will be brought into the region with PWAT (precipitable water) values of 1.8 to 2 inches, suggesting heavy rainfall likely at this time. Current thinking is that this will be a linear set-up that would track from west to east across the forecast area. With little instability being advertised, severe weather is not expected. However, some gusty winds could be possible. Stay tuned as we continue to fine tune these details in the coming days! && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 148 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Still expecting some MVFR producing strato-cu to impact at least some of the taf locations this afternoon. Skies will clear tonight, with another lowering cloud deck expected to visit the area on Wednesday...although trends support maintenance of VFR conditions. Gusty west/southwest winds will go light tonight, with light winds continuing into Wednesday morning. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LHZ349. && $$ SHORT TERM...DJC LONG TERM...SJC AVIATION...MSB