Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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330 FXUS63 KAPX 172310 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 710 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm temperatures and rain-free through the end of the week, leading to elevated fire danger at times. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 203 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Rather benign and mundane pattern through Wednesday with large scale ridging aloft and sfc high pressure just to the east. Strong low level heating, deep mixing, and dry sfc conditions will result in high fire danger, however. Primary Forecast Concerns: Ridging aloft and sfc high pressure to the east will keep northern Michigan dry tonight into Wednesday. Thus, expect a typically cooler night across low spots among hilly terrain and within river valleys as cool air drains and pools in these locations. Could have isolated spots of fog consequently. Anomalous high pressure correlates to anomalous warmth, with temperatures remaining in the 80s on Wednesday. Dry and warm low levels, deep mixing, and dry vegetation will result in high fire danger on Wednesday. Displaced pressure gradient to the west and thus light winds over northern Michigan preclude any more significant fire weather concerns, although erratic fire behavior would be possible given the aforementioned variables, in a conditional sense. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 203 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 The pattern remains pretty consistent with high pressure situated overhead with a few low pressure systems tracking around the Northwoods. Warm temperatures, light winds, and hazy skies will persist through at least Thursday. Temperatures through the long- term will stay above normal (80s) until possibly next week slightly cooler (70s) look to try and creep into the area. Cloud cover will begin to fill in Friday as the next chances for rain looks to be Friday night into Saturday. With the atmosphere very dry from the lack of moisture brought into the region, anything that falls Friday night into Saturday is not expected to amount to much, and could potentially just end up being virga for most areas. Guidance continues to struggle with the next chances for precipitation with some hinting at precipitation Saturday and some Sunday/ Monday. Stay tuned as we continue to fine tune these details in the coming forecast cycles. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 653 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 VFR conditions. More of the same as high pressure remains in control. Patchy ground fog possible once again after midnight, likely have minimal impacts on the terminals. Outside of patchy cirrus, minimal cloud cover expected through Wednesday morning. Some diurnal cu may develop Wednesday afternoon, more likely over eastern areas. This could impact APN with a few more afternoon clouds. Winds becoming light and variable overnight, then increasing by late morning/early afternoon on Wednesday with lake breeze influences impacting speeds and directions. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLD LONG TERM...NSC AVIATION...JK/JLD