564
FXUS63 KAPX 161857
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
257 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm temperatures and rain-free weather persists, leading to
  elevated fire danger at times this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Abnormally high heights extending from New England westward into
the Great Lakes will continue to dominate the weather picture
through Tuesday (and well beyond). This will continue to result
in mostly clear skies, very warm daytime temperatures and
surprisingly comfortable nighttime temperatures. Guidance is a
few degrees cooler Tuesday for highs but still think it will
reach into the mid and upper 80s. Tonight will likely be a
little cooler than last night with lows ranging from the mid 40s
to the mid 50s. Light and variable winds through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Pattern Forecast: Above normal heights are expected to continue
through much, if not all, of the long term forecast period. Combined
with attendant surface high pressure dominating, above normal
temperatures with little to no chance for precipitation will be
the rule through the week ahead. Just beyond the end of the
forecast period, latest trends do support at least some low
precipitation chances, although certainly lots of time to sort
out details for nearly 10 days from now.

Forecast Details: Little in the way of sensible weather is
anticipated for midweek through the weekend. Daily high temperatures
through the work week largely in the low-mid 80s -- cooler near the
lakeshores. Trends favor highs cooling a touch this weekend
into early next week, but still mild 70s and low 80s for the
last half of September. Fire weather concerns appear to be
greatest early this week, but still some potential for
afternoon RHs to fall into the 30-40% range across interior
areas of northern lower.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 201 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Stagnant weather pattern continuing over the next couple of
days (and beyond) with high pressure leading to mostly clear
skies and light winds. Although can not totally rule out patchy
ground fog tonight, continued drying from the lack of rainfall
and warm days will make any fog formation a tough chore.
Therefore, VFR cigs/vsbys are expected through the taf period.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJS
LONG TERM...MJG
AVIATION...AJS