107
FXUS63 KAPX 191206
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
806 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered storm chances this afternoon and evening

- Hot temperatures this afternoon before cold front moves
  through today

- Relief from heat, shower/thunderstorm chances continue at
  times through the upcoming weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Current satellite and surface
observations show a surface low over Lk Superior this morning moving
eastward. Radar shows showery convection all along the cold front as
it moves across the MI U.P. Colder air behind this boundary is
starting to move into the arrowhead of MN. In the upper levels, a
short wave trough is moving over northern MN while an upper ridge is
centered over the Mid-Atlantic. Stronger southwest winds are present
in between these two features. CAMs depict a decent LLJ around 925mb
with speeds around 45kts, this is leading to gusts around 15 to 25
mph near the surface over NW lower. The surface feature will
continue northeast today, and accelerate ahead of upper level
support. Due to this, and the center of the surface low continuing
to move away from the CWA, the trailing cold front will weaken as it
reaches northern MI. CAMs suggest some isolated convection as it
initially moves through the CWA (possibly 1,000 to 2,000 j/kg of
SBCAPE ahead of the boundary), with better chances possibly over NE
lower in this intial push in the afternoon hours. A cooler air mass
near the surface will continue to slide into northern MI this
evening as the center of the upper high starts to shift westward,
creating more zonal flow over the state. Mid to upper level moisture
will still be rotating around the high, and intersecting with our
CWA (upper level flow more parallel to the surface boundary). CAMs
depict showers forming over the stable air at the surface (MUCAPE is
existent), and moving over NW lower later this evening and into
tonight.

Temperatures will be hot and humid again today, with plenty of
sunshine in the morning before that boundary moves through. Cooler
temperatures will settle in behind the front, with higher moisture
amounts lingering through the night.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages: The CWA will likely see
isolated to possibly scattered storms in the initial surge of the
cold front. Although there is still some uncertainty in timing the
frontal passage, wind rose plots show the front passing through from
4pm to 8 pm. This allows temperatures to warm this afternoon into
the high 80s to low 90s again, and will aid in the creation of
around 1,000 to 1,500 j/kg of elevated instability for the evening
hours. Upper level heights will either remain unchanged or even dip
slightly today. A mid level cap could still be present, however at
least a storm or two should initiate along the boundary (possibly a
few more). Very little severe concerns with these storms, however
heavy rain could be seen with storms (with an environment favorable
for storms to train). One thing that could inhibit storms from
initiating is if clouds move in ahead of the boundary.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Pattern Synopsis: After strong ridging gripped the region for
the first half of the week, the mid/upper-level pattern across
the eastern half of the CONUS will begin to flatten heading into
the weekend. Broad surface high pressure will also gradually
work east of the region into Saturday as multiple shortwaves
look to punch overhead this weekend, supporting a cyclone that
looks to trek across the Great Lakes in the late Saturday/early
Sunday timeframe. Surface high pressure then looks to build back
in by early next week.

Forecast Details: Relief from heat, shower/storm chances
through weekend -- After a several day stretch of highs in the
upper 80s/low 90s and overnight lows in the upper 60s and 70s,
northern Michigan will finally experience relief from the heat
during the second half of this week as a boundary settles across
the middle of the state. This will leave cooler temperatures in
place north of the boundary, with highs expected to range from
the upper 60s to low 80s Thursday and Friday. As has been the
case the last several days, chances for showers/ storms will
continue at times through the upcoming weekend. Highest
confidence comes at the beginning of the period Thursday as
scattered showers and embedded storms are expected to work
across northern Michigan through the morning and afternoon. Low-
end chances persist after this before the next main round of
rain/storms returns to the area Saturday into early Sunday.
While relatively high uncertainty still remains in where
heaviest rainfall may set up, forecast PWAT values approaching
2" -- which would exceed climatological max values for the end
of the June -- will support efficient rainfall with any
convection. Locally heavy rainfall may be possible with rainfall
totals in excess of 1". Forecast details pertaining to more
specific timing/locations/amounts are expected to become more
clear in upcoming forecast cycles.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 805 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Currently VFR conditions with skies generally SKC and winds SW
around 10kts with gusts up to 20kts over NW lower terminals. LLWS
over most terminals due to ~40/45kt jet around 2kft. LLWS should
subside around 16Z with surface winds still gusting to around 20kts
and veering west. Skies will fill through the day as a FROPA
approaches from the NW. Front will likely pass through northern
MI terminals around 20Z to 00Z this afternoon and evening,
turning winds generally N/NW with gusts slowly diminishing. Best
chances for TSRA will be over KTVC/KMBL/KPLN, however
confidence remains low on exact location of storms. Skies will
briefly clear after 00Z before more RA chances move in after 06Z
from the southwest.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ095-
     096-098.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ323-
     341-342-344>346.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ELD
LONG TERM...DJC
AVIATION...ELD