662
FXUS63 KAPX 250617
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
217 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and isold thunder gradually ends today.

- No impactful weather expected throughout the entirety of the
  long term forecast period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 217 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

...Showers and isold thunder ending today...

High Impact Weather Potential...Slight chance of non-severe
thunderstorms today across NE Lower Michigan.

Closed surface low continues to slowly lift northward thru Lower
Michigan early this morning...as a closed upper low pivots thru the
Mid Mississippi Valley on the back side of the surface system.
Scattered to numerous showers continue to impact much of our CWA as
this system rides thru our area. Thunder has been hard to come by
throughout the night due to limited instability and weak wind fields
to aid in convective organization...but a few isold storms have
recently developed across portions of far NE Lower Michigan where
slightly better instability resides (i.e. MUCAPES nearing 50 J/kg).

Surface low center will lift thru Lake Huron this morning...thru SE
Ontario this afternoon and into far Western Quebec tonight. Closed
upper level low will drop into the Lower Mississippi Valley over the
next 24 hours...as a sharp northern stream upper level trough axis
slides thru Ontario and Lake Superior right behind the closed
surface low. Scattered/numerous showers will gradually diminish this
morning and eventually come to an end from west to east this
afternoon as this complex system pushes east of Michigan. A few non-
severe thunderstorms will remain possible across NE Lower Michigan
into early afternoon...again will slightly better instability
remains. High temps this afternoon will warm into the upper 60s to
lower 70s.

Skies will clear from west to east later this afternoon and tonight
as high pressure and drier air build into the Western Great Lakes in
the wake of the departing system. Low temps tonight will cool into
the mid to upper 40s across most of our CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 217 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

-No impactful weather expected throughout the entirety of the long
term forecast period: Not much has changed since yesterdays long
term discussion. Midlevel ridging currently building over the
rockies will progress eastward and settle over the midwest for the
majority of the forecast period. This pattern supports surface high
pressure, resulting in quiet conditions through the remainder of the
week. Southern stream flow influencing the Great Lakes region will
allow temperatures climb above average for late September as highs
will climb to the mid 70s this Thursday through Monday with even a
few of the typically warmer areas of the CWA hitting 80 degrees this
weekend. Chances of precipitation return early next week as midlevel
low pressure over the Tennessee Valley potentially advects
northward. Details continue to remain a bit foggy as clusters still
struggle to find an exact solution as tropical moisture combines
with aformentioned low pressure. Chances of PoPs along with
messaging will remain low at this time. Most likely solution will be
most moisture remaining in the Appalachian region while only a few
scattered showers reach the CWA around the Monday/Tuesday timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1055 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

ISO to SCT SHRA expected the rest of tonight and into the
morning hrs on Wednesday. ISO TSRA possible, mainly east of
I-75, and close to the Lake Huron Shoreline. Best chance to see
ISO TSRA will be for KAPN between 04-09Z, but low confidence at
this time, thus currently no mention of VCTS, but something to
monitor. Due to the saturated conditions, mix of BR/FG tonight
with BKN- OVC 003-010 CIGs. Mix of IFR to LIFR CIGs and VIS most
locations tonight, gradually improving through the day on
Wednesday with dry and VFR conditions taking hold once more.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MLR
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...JLD