Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 201959
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
359 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

...Showers/Storms Return Sunday...

.DISCUSSION...

A few showers and storms this afternoon...likely to diminish tonight
behind a front. Pleasant Saturday...warm and a little dry again,
with RHs around or under 40 percent especially over interior areas.
Winds westerly gusting up toward 10-15mph at times...with lake
breeze development expected. Winds turn more south/southwesterly
Sunday ahead of a more potent front...and a bit more potent,
sustained 10-15mph gusting up close to 20mph, especially downwind of
the lakes as winds turn NW to N in the wake of the front Sunday
afternoon and evening. Expecting a decent rain with this
front...some potential for 6-hr totals of a half inch to an inch,
particularly Sunday afternoon/night. Temps to return to more seasonable
levels Sunday into next week.

MIZ016-017-021>023-099-210815-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
359 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent). Isolated
                    thunderstorms until 2400. Isolated rain
                    showers. Patchy fog after 2400.
Min Temperature.....58-63.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged...except 7 percent wetter along the
                    coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (28).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.06 in .

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Patchy fog until
                    1200.
Max Temperature.....78-83...except 67-72 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer.
Min Humidity........40-45 percent...except 52-57 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......15 percent drier...except 4 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming northwest around 5 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (327).
Mixing Height.......3300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent).
Min Temperature.....57-62.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Max Humidity........87-92 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged...except 13 percent drier along the
                    coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (16).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in .

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers.
Max Temperature.....74-79...except 64-69 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........54-59 percent...except 68-73 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......21 percent wetter...except 15 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph shifting to the west
                    in the afternoon. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (266).
Mixing Height.......2100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 9 mph shifting to the
                    northwest around 12 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.27- 0.53 in.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-210815-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
359 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Isolated
                    thunderstorms until 2400. Scattered rain
                    showers.
Min Temperature.....57-62.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (26).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 9 mph shifting to the southwest
                    around 6 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.10 in .

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Patchy fog until
                    1200. Isolated rain showers until 1200.
Max Temperature.....80-85...except around 71 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer...except 1 degree cooler near
                    the coast.
Min Humidity........38-43 percent.
   24 HR Trend......11 percent drier...except 4 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming north around 5 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (393).
Mixing Height.......4300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (50-60 percent).
Min Temperature.....55-60...except 63-68 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds around 5 mph in the evening becoming
                    light.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (22).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....75-80...except around 71 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler...except 1 degree warmer near
                    the coast.
Min Humidity........52-57 percent.
   24 HR Trend......17 percent wetter...except 10 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 13 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (281).
Mixing Height.......2200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 12 mph shifting to the southwest
                    in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.19- 0.35 in.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-210815-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
359 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent). Isolated showers
                    and thunderstorms until 2400.
Min Temperature.....54-59...except 62-67 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent wetter...except 13 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (26).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in .

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Patchy fog until
                    1200.
Max Temperature.....79-84...except 67-72 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........40-45 percent.
   24 HR Trend......16 percent drier...except 11 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming northwest around 5 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (278).
Mixing Height.......3000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent).
Min Temperature.....55-60...except 62-67 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Max Humidity........83-88 percent...except 70-75 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......16 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (16).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in .

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers until 1200, then rain showers likely
                    and chance of thunderstorms.
Max Temperature.....72-77...except 62-67 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........59-64 percent.
   24 HR Trend......22 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    northwest in the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (262).
Mixing Height.......1800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 9 mph shifting to the north around
                    15 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.43- 0.64 in.


$$

MIZ031>033-210815-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
359 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent). Isolated showers
                    and thunderstorms until 2400. Patchy fog after
                    2400.
Min Temperature.....54-59.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged...except 7 percent wetter along the
                    coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (26).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in .

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Patchy fog until
                    1200.
Max Temperature.....80-85...except 72-77 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........38-43 percent.
   24 HR Trend......15 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming northwest around 5 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (325).
Mixing Height.......3500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent).
Min Temperature.....55-60.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Max Humidity........82-87 percent.
   24 HR Trend......16 percent drier...except 7 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (20).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in .

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers until 1200, then rain showers likely
                    and chance of thunderstorms.
Max Temperature.....73-78...except around 71 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........62-67 percent...except 71-76 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......27 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph shifting to the west
                    in the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (246).
Mixing Height.......2000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 9 mph shifting to the north
                    around 12 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.55- 0.68 in.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-210815-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
359 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent). Isolated
                    thunderstorms until 2400. Isolated rain
                    showers. Patchy fog after 2400.
Min Temperature.....55-60.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (29).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 9 mph shifting to the west around
                    6 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.07 in .

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Areas of fog
                    until 1200.
Max Temperature.....82-87.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........37-42 percent.
   24 HR Trend......17 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming northwest around 5 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (514).
Mixing Height.......4700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent).
Min Temperature.....55-60.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........89-94 percent.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (16).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast around 6 mph shifting to the
                    southeast around 9 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....76-81.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........52-57 percent.
   24 HR Trend......19 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 13 mph.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (280).
Mixing Height.......2600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 9 mph shifting to the west around
                    12 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.25- 0.66 in.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 50.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 50.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS AROUND
70. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS AROUND 70.
EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

FEF