969
AXNT20 KNHC 231636
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu May 23 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1631 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Rainfall in the Caribbean: A deep-layered trough
currently extending from the western Atlantic well offshore of
North Carolina S-SW across central Cuba to Costa Rica is
promoting unstable atmospheric conditions from Colombia north and
northeastward across the Caribbean and western Atlantic between
75W and 60W. This feature will lift slowly northeastward and into
the Atlantic this afternoon through early Sat, and will combine
with abundant tropical moisture to support widespread deep
convection across eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and the
Virgin Islands through late Fri. The latest computer model
guidance suggests the highest rainfall accumulations will occur
across southern Hispaniola through Friday. Residents in the above
locations should remain alert for significant rainfall and
potential flash flooding. Please refer to your local weather
office for more specific information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is located along 46W, southward of 12N, and
moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is seen from 01.5N to 08N between 42W and 47W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Senegal coast near
12N16.5W, then curves southwestward across 07N19W to 05N22W. An
ITCZ continues westward from 05N22W across 02N32W to 03.5N42.5W.
Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is N of 02N
between the W coast of African and 17.5W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 01.5N to 06N between 22W and 42W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Stable atmospheric conditions generally prevail across the Gulf.
A broad surface ridge persists from the southeastern U.S.
southwestward to the central Gulf. Smoke and haze produced by
agricultural fires in Mexico is lingering over the western and
central Gulf. Latest observations indicate reduced visibilities of
4 to 6 nm mainly across the western Gulf. Moderate with locally
fresh E to SE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are seen over the western
and south-central Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 2 to
4 ft seas prevail across the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, hazy conditions due to agricultural fires in
Mexico will continue across all but NE portions of the Gulf
through Thu night. High pressure will remain NE of the basin
through the end of the week, producing moderate to locally fresh E
to SE winds across the waters W of 90W, and gentle to moderate
winds E of 90W. Winds will become SE to S basin-wide tonight
through Mon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section about a Significant
Rainfall Event.

A pronounced mid to upper-level trough extends from the western
Atlantic well offshore of North Carolina south southwestward
across the northwest Bahamas, and across central Cuba to Costa
Rica is providing a broad zone of lift and upper divergent flow
across the central basin. Together with a surface trough through
eastern Cuba focusing abundant moisture across the central basin,
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring
from Colombia and western Venezuela, north and northeastward
across the Caribbean between eastern Cuba and the Anegada Passage.
Moderate with locally fresh E to ESE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft
are present across the basin E of 74W, except for seas 5 to 7 ft
across the waters south of Haiti. Moderate winds are across the
Gulf of Honduras and between Jamaica and eastern Cuba. Gentle E to
SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail elsewhere.

Smoke due to agricultural fires in Central America persists
across the Gulf of Honduras, and offshore from Nicaragua and Costa
Rica. Latest observations reveal reduced visibilities of 4 to 6
nm.

For the forecast, a strong deep-layered trough continues across
the Caribbean from central Cuba to Costa Rica will begin to lift
out to the NE this afternoon through Sat night. This feature will
support active weather across the central portions of the basin,
which will gradually shift NE and into the Atlc through Fri night.
Fresh E to SE winds in the north-central Caribbean will shift
northeastward today and diminishing to moderate speeds. A broad
and weak trough will prevail across the north-central Caribbean
Thu night through Sat, yielding moderate trade winds across E
portions and moderate to fresh winds across NW portions of the
basin. Smoke due to agricultural fires in Central America
continues across the Gulf of Honduras, and spreads NW to the
Yucatan coast.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A sharp deep-layered trough extends from well offshore of North
Carolina south-southwestward across the NW Bahamas, central Cuba
and to the SW Caribbean. Broad scale lift induced by this feature
and strong divergent flow aloft to the east of the trough axis are
coupling with modest convergent southerly surface winds near a
surface trough over the NW Bahamas to generate scattered moderate
isolated strong convection from the northern Caribbean across the
Greater Antilles to the Atlantic between 60W and 71W. The heaviest
rainfall in recent hours has been occurring across the eastern
Bahamas and adjacent Atlantic waters to the north and northeast.

A weak surface trough enters our waters near 31N35W to 28.5N44.5W.
Isolated moderate convection is depicted N of 29N between 31W and
36W. A broad and weak surface ridge is anchored by a 1023 high
center near 27N33W, and is supporting gentle anticyclonic winds
and seas of 2 to 6 ft north of 23.5N between 35W and 74W. NW of
the trough across the NW Bahamas, gentle NE winds prevail with
seas of 2 to 4 ft. South of 23.5N between 64.5W and 72W winds are
fresh to locally strong with seas 4 to 7 ft. Farther east,
moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds with seas 5 to 8 ft. With
the exception of seas to 9 ft between the Cape Verde Islands and
the W coast of Africa.

For the forecast W of 55W, a surface trough extends from 30N72W
to the central Bahamas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
prevail across the western Atlantic between the trough and 60W,
supported by a deep layered upper trough extending from well
offshore of North Carolina through central Cuba. The surface
trough will weaken and dissipate through Fri. A second surface
trough extending through the Windward Passage, across the SE
Bahamas to 25N67W will drift eastward through Sat. Weak low
pressure is expected to develop along the trough just N of
Hispaniola tonight and shift N-NE through Sat, moving N of 31N Sat
night. The low will be accompanied by fresh to locally strong
winds and active weather Fri through Sat.

$$
KRV