612
AXNT20 KNHC 300603
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu May 30 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0550 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 19W/20W, from 14N
southward, moving westward about 15 knots. Precipitation:
broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and disorganized
rainshowers, are within 150 nm to the east of the tropical wave,
and within 300 nm to the west of the tropical wave, from 04N to
09N.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 36W/38W, from 10N
southward, moving westward 15 knots to 20 knots. Precipitation:
broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and disorganized
rainshowers, are within 510 nm to the east of the tropical wave,
and within 240 nm to the west of the tropical wave.

A tropical wave is along 60W/61W, from 14N southward, moving
westward 15 knots to 20 knots. Precipitation: broken to overcast
multilayered clouds, and disorganized rainshowers, are within 520
nm to the east of the tropical wave, and within 300 nm to the
west of the tropical wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 84W/85W, from 21N
southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to strong is from 11N to 13N from 90 nm to 180
nm to the east of the tropical wave; and from 12N to 15N from 160
nm to 300 nm to the west of the tropical wave. Broken to overcast
multilayered clouds, and disorganized rainshowers, are elsewhere
within 360 nm on either side of tropical wave.

This weather system continues to enhance the precipitation that
is in parts of Hispaniola and the regional waters. Moisture that
is associated with this tropical wave will spread into Jamaica and
eastern Cuba through at least Wednesday. It is possible that the
storm activity may produce gusty winds and locally heavy rain.
Please, refer to bulletins and forecasts that are from your local
weather bureau office for more detailed information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea-
Bissau close to 12N16W, to 11N18W. The ITCZ is along 06N21W
04N30W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is
elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A north-to-south oriented surface trough is in Florida.
A surface ridge passes through the Florida Panhandle toward the SW
corner of the Gulf of Mexico. A stationary front is in the U.S.A.
Gulf coastal plains from Alabama beyond east Texas. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to strong is from 29N northward between 90W and
the Louisiana/Texas border.

Slight to moderate seas are in the western half of the area.
Slight seas are in the eastern half of the area. Fresh to strong
NE winds are within 100 nm of the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula
between 90W and 93W. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are from 23N
southward from 90W westward. Mostly moderate to some fresh SE
winds are elsewhere from 90W westward. Gentle to moderate winds
are in the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico.

Hazy conditions, that are due to agricultural fires in Mexico and
in Central America, are persisting in most of the western half of
the Gulf of Mexico.

Relatively weak surface ridging will continue across the area
through into early next week. As a result, winds will pulse
moderate to fresh during the evenings through the weekend. Fresh
to strong NE to E winds will pulse near the northern and western
portions of the Yucatan peninsula during the late afternoons and
at night through Sun. Haze west of 90W due to agricultural fires
over Central America and Mexico will continue for at least the
next couple of days reducing visibility at times.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough is sending cyclonic wind flow from the
Yucatan Peninsula to the Windward Passage. The affected areas
include the Bahamas, Cuba, in the NW Caribbean Sea, and in parts
of Central America. This feature continues to transport abundant
tropical moisture from the SW Caribbean, to parts of the NW and
north central Caribbean Sea, and into parts of the Atlantic Ocean.
The Greater Antilles areas will be affected by this moisture and
possible precipitation. The environment will remain conducive for
rainshowers and possible thunder. Locally heavy rain, and gusty
winds are possible, especially in mountainous areas, leading to
flash flooding. Please, refer to bulletins and forecasts that
are from your local weather bureau office for more detailed
information.

Hazy conditions continue to affect the Gulf of Honduras.
Agricultural fires have been in Central America. It is possible
that the visibilities may decrease to less than 3 nm at times,
especially along the northern coast of Honduras and the Bay
Islands.

The monsoon trough is along 12N73W beyond 09N76W. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is within 240 nm to the south
of the monsoon trough between 73W and 90W.

Fresh to strong NE winds are from 12N to 15N between 75W and 81W.
Fresh NE winds are in much of the rest of the central one-third of
the area. Moderate to fresh NE winds are in the eastern one-third
of the area. Moderate or slower winds are from 80W westward.
Slight seas are from 15N northward from 80W westward. Moderate
seas are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea.

A moderate pressure gradient between high pressure north of the
area and low pressure near Colombia will maintain fresh to strong
trade winds over the south-central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras
tonight. Winds will become moderate to fresh Thu through Fri as
the pressure gradient slackens some. The pressure gradient will
increase Fri night behind a tropical wave that is currently just
east of the Windward Islands leading to fresh to strong trade
winds across the central basin through early Mon. A tropical wave
currently over the western Caribbean near 85W is producing
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the
southwestern Caribbean and Central America. The wave is forecast
to move across Central America and into the eastern Pacific waters
late tonight into Thu. Smoke from agricultural fires over Central
America is causing reduced visibilities over portions of the Gulf
of Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is along 31N33W 29N50W, curving to 26N54W,
20N63W, to 14N68W in the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation:
broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to
locally strong, are from 15N northward from 25W westward.

Fresh NE winds are from 07N to 19N between 30W and 60W. Moderate
to fresh northerly winds are from 14N to 21N from 20W eastward.
Moderate or slower winds are elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean.
Moderate seas are from 31N14W 24N26W 19N40W 18N49W 18N60W
southward. Slight seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

Relatively weak surface ridging over the region is allowing for
moderate or lighter winds to exist over the forecast waters. A
cold front will move off the southeastern U.S. coast Thu, move
across the western half of the area through Fri night, and across
the remainder of the forecast waters through late Mon. High
pressure building in behind the front will tighten the pressure
gradient across the region, bringing moderate to fresh winds
across waters north of 20N. Moderate seas can also be expected
with these winds. Conditions will slightly improve by early next
week north of 27N.

$$
mt/ja