654
AXNT20 KNHC 212247
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed May 22 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Rainfall in the Caribbean: A deep layered trough will
dig southward across the western Caribbean Sea today through Wed
then lift out to the northeast through Fri. This feature is
expected to destabilize the atmosphere, and support very active
convection across the south-central Caribbean beginning today,
with strong afternoon convection across the Greater Antilles.
Convection is then expected to develop north and northeastward
across the central Caribbean and Greater Antilles, from Jamaica
and eastern Cuba, to western Puerto Rico, Wed through Fri. Latest
computer model guidance currently suggests that the highest
rainfall accumulations with this event may occur across
Hispaniola. Residents in these locations should remain alert for
significant rainfall and potential flash flooding. Please refer
to your local weather office for more specific information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough extends off the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
12N16W to 07N25W. The ITCZ extends from 07N25W to 04N49W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 11N between 10W
and 38W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Isolated moderated convection is depicted over the SE Gulf
including the Straits of Florida in association to a surface
trough across the area. Elsewhere, weak high pressure extends
from the eastern U.S. into the northern Gulf. Gentle to moderate E
to SE winds prevail across the Gulf, with slight seas. Hazy
conditions due to agricultural fires in Mexico continue across
most of the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain NE of the basin
through the end of the week, with moderate to locally fresh E to
SE winds across the waters W of 90W, and gentle to moderate winds
E of 90W. Winds will become SE to S Fri and Sat.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section above for more
information about Significant Rainfall Event in the Caribbean.

A deep layered upper trough along 75W extends from the western
Atlantic to western Cuba, and is digging southward across the NW
Caribbean. This feature has initiated numerous moderate to strong
convection across the waters between Hispaniola and Cuba, N of 14N
between 72W and 80W. Weak high pressure ridge prevails just N of
the area, to the E of 74W. The pressure gradient between the ridge
and lower pressure over northern South America is supporting
fresh to locally strong trade winds across the central and eastern
basin, E of 76W. Seas in this area are 6 to 8 ft. W of 76W,
easterly winds are moderate to locally fresh with seas 4 to 7 ft.
Otherwise, gentle winds and 3 to 5 ft seas exist across the
southwestern basin and north of the Cayman Islands.

Latest observations along with earlier satellite imagery indicate
haze and smoke produced by agricultural fires in Central America
are causing reduced visibilities, down to 4 to 6 nm across the
northwestern basin, including the Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, the deep layer trough will will support active
weather across the central portions of the basin, and will
gradually shift NE through Fri. Fresh to strong E to SE winds in
the central Caribbean will shift northeastward through Thu while
diminishing to mostly fresh speeds. Smoke due to agricultural
fires in Central America continues across the Gulf of Honduras,
but continue to thin out.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends across the northern waters, from 30N74W
to a 1012 mb low pressure near 28N75W then continues across the
Florida Straits. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is depicted S of 30N between 59W and 76W, supported by a deep
layered upper trough. Moderate NE winds prevail across the waters
NW of the trough. Seas are 4 to 6 ft across this area.

In the central Atlantic, 1026 mb high pressure is centered over
the eastern Atlantic near 33N24W, and extends a ridge W-SW to near
24N64W. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds prevail within the
ridge between 20N and 30W. Seas are 2 to 4 ft within the ridge.
South of 20N, mainly moderate to locally fresh NE to E trade winds
prevail, where seas are 4 to 6 ft.

In the eastern Atlantic E of 35W, gentle to moderate winds
prevail N of 24N between 35W and 25W with seas to 4 ft. Fresh to
strong NE winds prevail off the Africa coast to 20W, with moderate
to fresh winds prevailing between 20W and 35W. Seas range 6 to 9
ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned trough will weaken
midweek. Another trough will develop just southeast of the trough
and extend into the central Bahamas on Wed, then drift eastward
through Thu night. Moderate winds and seas will prevail in the
western Atlantic with the trough through midweek. Weak low
pressure is expected to develop just N of Hispaniola Thu night and
shift N-NE through Sat, accompanied by moderate to fresh winds
and active weather.

$$
AReinhart