232
AXNT20 KNHC 212259
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Sep 22 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Potential Heavy Rainfall in Central America:
A Central American Gyre (CAG) is forecast to gradually develop
over Central America through this weekend, near Costa Rica and
Panama. It will slowly drift NW across Nicaragua, Honduras, and
the Yucatan Peninsula through the middle of next week. Aided by
abundant tropical moisture, this system may produce significant
rainfall near Panama through this weekend, then Costa Rica and
eastern Nicaragua late on Sunday through early next week.
Afterward, heavy rain may spread over central and northern
Guatemala and western Honduras during the first half of next week,
and into Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula late next week. This
will lead to an increased potential for life-threatening flash
flooding and mudslides in these areas. It is recommended that
residents in the aforementioned areas stay alert on the latest
information from their local meteorological agencies. Please refer
to the Tropical Weather Discussion for the Eastern Pacific at
website:
https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATWDEP.shtml for rainfall across
El Salvador and the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, Guatemala, and
southern Mexico.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the border of
Senegal and Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W, then extends to 08N35W.
The ITCZ extends from 08N35W to 08N48W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 08N to 15N east of 21W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Light to gentle easterly winds and slight seas prevail across the
Gulf of Mexico, due to high pressure centered over the SE United
States.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate into early next week.
A broad area of low pressure is likely to form by the early to
middle part of next week over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and
the adjacent portions of Central America. Thereafter, gradual
development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression
could form as the system moves slowly northward across the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico through the end of
next week. There is a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation
in the next seven days. Regardless of development, winds and seas
will start increasing across the SE Gulf early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for potential
heavy rainfall and already increasing convection associated with
a developing Central American Gyre (CAG).

Gentle to moderate trades with seas of 3-5 ft prevail across the
Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is in the western
Caribbean mainly W of 72W.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas are
expected across the E and central Caribbean through tonight.
A broad area of low pressure is likely to form by the early to
middle part of next week over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and
the adjacent portions of Central America. Thereafter, gradual
development of this system is possible, and a tropical
depression could form as the system moves slowly northward
across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico through
the end of next week. There is a medium chance of tropical
cyclone formation in the next seven days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough enters the W Atlantic near 31N72W and extends
across the central Bahamas to near 22N77W. Scattered moderate
convection is N of 25N between 68W and 72W ahead of the trough.
Latest scatterometer data depicts light winds near the trough.

1007 mb low pressure (AL96) is centered near 26N55.5W, and
producing scattered moderate convection within 150 nm NE of the
center. Winds in this region are near fresh speeds. Environmental
conditions do not appear conducive for significant development of
this system during the next couple of days while it drifts slowly
northwestward and then northward over the central or western
subtropical Atlantic.

1005 mb low pressure (Remnants of Gordon) is centered near 25.5N42W.
Fresh to strong winds and 6-9 ft seas are within 180 nm of the
center of the low pressure, mainly confined to the northern
semicircle. No significant convection is noted at this time.
Significant development of this system is not expected while it
moves slowly northwestward over the central subtropical Atlantic
during the next couple of days.

1012 mb high pressure is centered near 14N52W. Scattered showers
are noted across the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle winds and
seas of 4-6 ft prevail across open waters.

For the forecast W of 55W, a weak cold front will move off the SE
coast of the US tonight and slowly move across the waters N of
25N into Mon night.

$$
ERA