485
FXUS61 KBGM 201759
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
159 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control through Friday promoting
mainly dry and mild conditions. Showers and thunderstorms are
possible for western parts of the area Saturday afternoon and
evening. Dry conditions return on Sunday, but more showers will
be possible by Monday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1235 PM Update...

Just some minor changes made to the forecast at this time,
mainly raising dew point temperatures this afternoon as we were
running a little low.

925 AM Update...

Allowed for valley fog to linger around a little longer this
morning before it completely burns off. Outside of some minor
sky cover tweaks, the rest of the forecast remains on track
today. Did increase PoPs tomorrow evening over western portions
of our area as a vigorous shortwave moves through.

345 AM Update...

High pressure will be over the region again today. Morning fog
will dissipate by 10 am and give way to mostly sunny skies for
this afternoon. Another warm day is expected with highs in the
upper 70s to low 80s. Skies will gradually become partly cloudy
tonight with some areas of fog forming during the early morning
hours on Saturday. Lows will be in the 50s to near 60 degrees.

Saturday will finally feature a chance for showers and
thunderstorms as a shortwave dives south out of Canada across
Central NY Saturday afternoon. There will be some weak instability
in place with up to 500 J/kg of CAPE by late afternoon. Showers
and thunderstorms are looking more and more likely west of the
I81 corridor with a smaller chance further east. There is very
little shear available, so any storms that do develop will be
weak, but with PWATs approaching 1.5", a quick afternoon
downpour is possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
350 AM Update...

A shortwave will push into the area from the west, bringing
rain showers Saturday afternoon through early morning Sunday. As
it travels across Central NY and NE PA, the shortwave loses
energy and will seemingly taper off pretty quickly after
Midnight Sunday. Best chances for rain will be west of I-81,
but there are slight chances (above 20 percent) across the
majority of Central NY and NE PA. With some slightly high PWATs,
for this time of year, of 1 to 1.5 inches, some locally intense
rainfall isn`t out of the realm of possibilities. Temperatures
decrease from the high 60s/low 70s Sunday to the low to mid 60s
Monday, thanks to shortwave`s cooler origins in Canada.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
350 AM Update...

A trough forming over the Great Lakes region heading into early
next week will introduce chances for rain showers and afternoon
thunderstorms pretty much every day in the long term period.
These look generally weak, with little energy likely to create
anything strong or even severe. Though, we`re still far out in
time, and as model resolution gets better, we`ll continue to
monitor rain and storm potential. Temperatures will be in the
low to high 60s through the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period along
with light winds. Mid and high level clouds will gradually
increase tonight and while areas of valley fog are still
expected overnight into tomorrow morning, it`s not expected to
be quite as widespread as this morning due to the cloud cover.
Confidence is highest at ELM for fog during this time, but given
the increase in cloud cover and model soundings not having the
typical fog look, confidence in visibility reaching less than
1/2 mile is a little lower.

A shortwave will be moving toward the area tomorrow bringing
scattered showers and thunderstorms to areas mainly west of
I-81, but any precipitation and potential restrictions, are
expected to be after this forecast period.

.Outlook...

Saturday afternoon and evening...Scattered showers/thunderstorms
and associated restrictions possible, especially for ELM, ITH
and AVP.

Late Saturday night through Monday...Mainly VFR with valley fog
possible at ELM during the early morning hours.

Monday night through Wednesday...Scattered showers/isolated
thunderstorms and potential restrictions possible as a frontal
boundary approaches.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...DK/MPK
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...DK