Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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761 FXUS61 KBGM 180644 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 244 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue to bring mainly dry and mild weather through the remainder of the week and into this weekend for most of the region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... 240 AM Update: High pressure will remain in control over most of the area today and Thursday. There is a small chance for a few isolated showers to graze our far southern counties in NE PA tonight through Thursday morning, but the majority of the area will remain dry. Low pressure located along the Mid- Atlantic Coastline will track out to sea tonight. This system will likely only spread high clouds across most of our area, other than that small chance for a few showers across the far south. Temperatures will remain warm today and tomorrow with highs in the mid to upper 70s and lows in the mid 50s to near 60 degrees. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... 320 PM Update... Low pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast will lead to some scattered clouds Thursday through Friday, but shower activity associated with this system looks to struggle to make it as far north and west as our area. A slight chance of showers (less than 20%) is possible through Friday evening for portions of NE PA and the southern Catskills, but if the low shifts a bit farther west closer to the coast, this could lead to a slight increase in the chance for showers. There is also a northeasterly low level jet that seems to develop Thursday into Friday over southern New England into northern New Jersey and if this happens to shift north and west, this could also lead to an increase in moisture in the higher terrain. High temperatures will be running above average Thursday and Friday ranging from the mid 70s to the lower 80s. Lows Thursday and Friday night will be mainly in the mid 50s to near 60 degrees. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 320 PM Update... Saturday through Monday is expected to be largely dry as surface high pressure noses down over the area from the northeast and upper level ridging develops from the west. A weak backdoor cold front looks to push through the area Saturday and with east to northeasterly flow, temperatures are expected to become more seasonable Sunday through early next week. The next chance for showers looks to be Tuesday or Wednesday as the next frontal boundary approaches. Highs Saturday are expected to range from the upper 60s and low 70s over the Catskills to the upper 70s across the western part of the CWA. Highs Sunday through early next week look to be in the 60s and low 70s. Overnight lows will be cooling down by early next week with lows from the mid 40s to the mid 50s come Sunday and Monday nights. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions with widespread high clouds will persist through the period, with the exception being ELM where valley fog is expected through this morning. Fog at KELM will lift by 14Z, resulting in a return to VFR conditions there. .Outlook... Thursday through Sunday...Mainly VFR with valley fog possible at ELM during the early morning hours. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPK NEAR TERM...MPK SHORT TERM...DK LONG TERM...DK AVIATION...MPK