272
FXUS61 KBGM 200748
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
348 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control through Friday promoting
mainly dry and mild conditions. Showers and thunderstorms are
possible for western parts of the area Saturday afternoon and
evening. Dry conditions return on Sunday, but more showers will
be possible by Monday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

345 AM Update...

High pressure will be over the region again today. Morning fog
will dissipate by 10 am and give way to mostly sunny skies for
this afternoon. Another warm day is expected with highs in the
upper 70s to low 80s. Skies will gradually become partly cloudy
tonight with some areas of fog forming during the early morning
hours on Saturday. Lows will be in the 50s to near 60 degrees.

Saturday will finally feature a chance for showers and
thunderstorms as a shortwave dives south out of Canada across
Central NY Saturday afternoon. There will be some weak instability
in place with up to 500 J/kg of CAPE by late afternoon. Showers
and thunderstorms are looking more and more likely west of the
I81 corridor with a smaller chance further east. There is very
little shear available, so any storms that do develop will be
weak, but with PWATs approaching 1.5", a quick afternoon
downpour is possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
245 PM Update:

In what has been a rather quiet/dry period of weather with
little to no change from one forecast cycle to another, there
actually were rather significant changes made to the forecast
for the short term period, mainly Saturday through Saturday
night.

A shortwave and associated surface frontal system is now
anticipated to move east-southeastward and impact the weather
for at least areas west of I-81, mainly from the Central
Southern Tier of NY southward into Northeast PA/North-Central
PA. This feature will have enough moisture and lift with it to
result in at least some scattered showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms for those areas, mainly Saturday afternoon through
Saturday evening. Some model guidance is hinting at a narrow
swath of heavier rainfall, but at this time this looks like it
would occur south of our area (more across Central PA), if at
all. With dry antecedent conditions, flooding is not expected to
be a concern. At this time, there is much less of a chance of
rain showers east of I-81, especially across the Catskills and
Mohawk Valley, but this could change as it gets closer.
Otherwise, above normal temperatures are expected to continue
with highs in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees and overnight lows
Saturday night mainly in the 50s.

High pressure and weak ridging will move back into the area for
Sunday, which will likely result in mostly sunny skies. Then
partly cloudy to mostly clear skies are expected Sunday night
with lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
245 PM Update:

A bit of a pattern change will occur next week with high
pressure moving out of the area and several shortwaves and weak
low pressure systems moving through. Timing of these shortwaves
is uncertain this far out, but scattered showers will be
possible each day, although no particular day looks to be a
washout at this time. In between these shortwaves, mainly dry
conditions will be present, but again timing of this occurring
is uncertain.

Temperature-wise, it will be noticeably cooler with temperatures
at, or even slightly below normal due to the increased cloud
cover and shower activity. Daytime highs each day are currently
expected to be in the 60s with overnight lows mainly in the
50s.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mostly VFR conditions expected with high pressure over the
region. The only exceptions will be during the morning hours
with fog developing. Fog will be a little more widespread with
IFR - VLIFR restrictions most likely at ITH and ELM. However,
there will also be potential for IFR fog at SYR and RME briefly
this morning. Any fog will dissipate by 10 am and then mostly
sunny skies are expected the remainder of the day.

.Outlook...

Saturday through Monday...Mainly VFR with valley fog possible
at ELM during the early morning hours. There is a low chance for
showers and possible restrictions for Saturday afternoon and
evening.

Tuesday...Scattered showers and potential restrictions possible
as a frontal boundary approaches.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...MPK