209
FXUS61 KBGM 221318
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
918 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions return for today, with temperatures seasonably
warm, followed by overnight valley fog. Rain showers are
expected for most of the upcoming week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

Removed fog from the grids as it has dissipated sooner than
forecasted. Otherwise made minor tweaks to temperatures and dew
points with current observations. No other changes needed at
this time.

640 AM Update...

No major changes to the near-term forecast. Blended new guidance
with observations.


325 AM Update...

Dry conditions return briefly today, with temperatures in the
low to high 70s. Overnight, valley fog is expected to develop.
Rain showers move into the area from the west in the early
morning Monday hours. It`ll move into areas east of I-81 by
early afternoon, and last through the rest of the day.
Temperatures cool down slightly into the mid to high 60s for
Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
405 AM Update...

Upper level ridging will build across the coastal plain into New
England through Tuesday, with a more active southwesterly flow
setting up across NY/PA. Meanwhile a surface ridge axis will
extend from northern New England towards the Delmarva
Peninsula. Upper level impulses embedded in the southwesterlies
aloft will attempt to bring rain showers into western NY/PA
Monday night into Tuesday, but they`ll be fighting dry air in
the low levels brought in by the surface ridge axis. There`s a
fair amount of uncertainty heading into Monday night and Tuesday
with respect to precip chances given the setup, but PoPs have
been pared back a bit, especially over eastern sections.

Precip and thunderstorm chances will increase Tuesday night
into Wednesday, especially across the west as a stronger
shortwave trough moves through the area, and the drier air in
the low levels begins to retreat.

High temperatures will be slightly below seasonal normals
through Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
405 AM Update...

The upper level pattern will continue to amplify through mid and
late week, as a deep trough carves out across the mid-
Mississippi Valley and possibly cuts off into a closed low.
Active southwest flow will continue, with continued chances for
precip, especially Wednesday night across NEPA and the Catskills
as a more significant upper level disturbance lifts across the
area, and PWAT values increase to around 1.60 inches.

Precip chances will linger into Friday as the trough/cutoff low
slowly lifts across the area. While the focus for heavier
rainfall will likely shift to the coast, some wrap-around
showers are expected, especially near and north of the Thruway,
with some lake enhancement possible.

We`ll also be keeping tabs on tropical developments in the Gulf
of Mexico. At this time, it appears any tropical cyclone
remnants will remain to our south and east so long as the deep
trough/upper low remains somewhat progressive.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions expected for all terminals through the TAF
period, with brief exceptions to BGM and ELM. For ELM, valley
fog struggled to develop overnight, but brief MVFR to IFR fog
may development between now and 14Z. For BGM, some clouds with
fuel alt ceilings have moved in, but should only last the next
few hours until 14Z.

.Outlook...

Sunday evening through midday Monday...VFR. Local fog
restrictions possible late.

Late Monday through Thursday...Generally, unsettled with VFR
ceilings and occasional flight restrictions possible in passing
showers and a chance of thunderstorms each day.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...ES/KL
SHORT TERM...MPH
LONG TERM...MPH
AVIATION...KL