044
FXUS61 KBGM 240130
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
930 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Clouds, patchy fog, and spotty showers can be expected
overnight into early morning. While much of the area will be
dry Tuesday, additional disturbances will support shower
chances Tuesday night through Thursday. The pattern will change
in time for the weekend as high pressure settles back in with
drier conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
930 PM Update...
With the shortwave exiting earlier this evening and the
moisture layer becoming shallower, remaining showers
diminished quickly. That said, clouds and patchy fog will
persist through the night, with some spotty light showers and
perhaps some drizzle.

Previous discussion...
Weak upper level ridging briefly builds back into the region on
Tuesday, with a brief break in precipitation expected before
the next system arrives. As the ridge slides eastwards our
region gets placed in a southerly flow pattern. This will advect
more moisture into our region kicking off more showers
especially late Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night.
Although a chance of showers will still possible before this
time frame. Otherwise temperatures will be relatively
comfortable Tuesday afternoon with highs ranging in the mid to
upper 60s. Overnight lows will fall into the 50s across the
region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A warm frontal boundary will slowly move through the region
Wednesday and Thursday with enough lift and moisture to produce some
scattered showers. QPF once again looks on the lighter side with the
highest amounts of a half inch or less. Currently, this system looks
to move fast enough to prevent deeper tropical moisture from
advecting in. A few ensemble outliers do show deeper moisture with
heavier and more widespread rain that extends through Friday. The
general consensus though is for scattered light showers to end by
Thursday night. Highs look to be in the 60`s and 70`s with lows in
the 50`s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Two low pressure systems look to do an unusual Fujiwara effect
across the south later this week into early next week. However,
high pressure looks to build across our region throughout most
of this time keeping chances for showers to our south. Fairly
seasonable with 40`s and 50`s for lows with highs getting into
the 70`s for many locations each day.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
In the wake of a weak disturbance with showers ending, a shallow
layer of trapped moisture will cause ceiling and/or visibility
restrictions, especially KELM-KBGM where IFR to LIFR conditions
are anticipated. KITH will persist at fuel alternate below 2000
feet, though there is some uncertainty for if brief IFR could
occur. KAVP will also settle below 2000 feet overnight but
east-southeasterly low level flow should prevent IFR from being
realized due to downsloping from the Poconos. Moisture will not
be quite as thick towards KSYR-KRME, though KSYR will dip below
3000 feet/MVFR for much of the night. Improvement will occur
during the day Tuesday, though there is uncertainty for whether
KELM can manage to get above 2000 feet ceiling later in the day.

.Outlook...

Tuesday Night through Thursday Morning...Restrictions likely
along with showers as multiple disturbances pass through the
region. Embedded thunder could also occur later on Wednesday.

Thursday Afternoon through Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ES/MDP
NEAR TERM...ES/MDP
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...MDP