573
FXUS61 KBGM 220814
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
414 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions will continue through the weekend, with
scattered thunderstorms returning today, with even more on
Sunday, as a cold front sweeps through the area. Some stronger
storms may produce damaging winds and torrential rainfall. Heat
and humidity will subside Monday and Tuesday behind the front.
Showers and thunderstorms look to return on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
414 AM Update...

A few convective showers have started developing over Oneida
County north of a stalled out frontal boundary. Some additional
development is possible over the next couple hours, and they may
expand westward a bit before heading off to the east after
sunrise.

Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
by early afternoon, likely starting in the Finger Lakes region as
the front sags south. Later in the afternoon and into the
evening hours, the focus for thunderstorms looks to shift south
and east away from the boundary in the more moist and unstable
airmass across the Twin Tiers and NEPA. Expect like the past
couple of days thunderstorm initiation will be triggered off
outflow boundaries, and we`ll likely have a few indistinct
differential heating boundaries in the unstable airmass, the
linger effects of rain-soaked areas from yesterday. The end
result will just be similar to the past couple days, scattered
to numerous pop-and-drop thunderstorms. Deep layer shear of 25
to 30 knots is a little healthier than the past few days, and
this may result in a few more strong to severe storms with
downburst winds being the main threat.

Activity will once again follow a diurnal trend, with showers
and thunderstorms diminishing overnight. Valley fog is likely in
the more sheltered valleys, as a stronger pressure gradient
should keep a little more wind going through the night.

It will remain hot and humid today, especially south of the
stalled out front, where Heat Advisory criteria looks to again
be met across the southern Finger Lakes, Twin Tiers, and NEPA.

A cold front will push into the area on Sunday along with a more
significant shortwave trough, and attendant stronger mid and
low-level flow. Bulk shear around 40 knots will be a significant
uptick, but the timing of the shortwave trough is a little on
the early side, and instability may not build up quite as much
as it could otherwise. SPC Slight Risk covers the whole CWA, but
areas E and SE of a SYR-ELM line may be slightly more favored
for severe thunderstorms due to timing.

Kept the Heat Advisory as-is for Sunday, though if the earlier
cold front passage holds, we may be able to drop the western-
most counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The pattern is finally expected to shift Sunday as the strong upper-
level ridge responsible for the long duration heat and humidity
begins breaking down as a shortwave trough and surface cold front
approach from the west. This will lead to an increasing chance of
showers and thunderstorms Sunday, especially during the afternoon
and evening when precipitation appears likely. With the cold front
trending a little bit faster early this morning, moving into our
area during peak heating hours, along with 1000-1500 J/kg of surface-
based CAPE in place and 30-40 knots of shear, there will be the
potential for some stronger storms to develop. Mid-level lapse rates
are not very impressive at this point, so this looks to be more of a
wind threat with any potential stronger storms along with heavy
downpours with PWAT values in excess of 1.5 inches. The SPC has
outlooked the entire CWA in a marginal risk this day. With
uncertainty with the timing of the front, cloud cover and the
convection, temperatures on Sunday will be tricky to forecast. Highs
have trended down several degrees across CNY in the low and mid 80s
with the faster progression of the front, while the Twin Tiers into
NE PA range from the mid 80s to the low 90s. This still gets some
heat index values to around 95 for the Southern Tier of NY into NE
PA. So the heat advisory was extended through Sunday with the
afternoon forecast package.

As the front pushes east, the upper trough will lag behind over the
area on Monday, keeping the chance for scattered showers and
maybe a thunderstorm around. However, cooler, drier air will be
moving in for most areas as dew points fall back into the upper
50s and low 60s by the afternoon. Highs Monday are expected to
be from the mid 70s to the low 80s. With the Wyoming Valley
being one of the last spots for this more refreshing air to move
into, highs this day can still reach the mid and upper 80s. It
will feel more comfortable Monday night with lows in the upper
50s and low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Only subtle changes to the previous long term discussion. GFS
trended more toward the ECMWF suite with a cooler and more
progressive look later next week. High pressure briefly builds in
overhead Tuesday leading to a dry day before another front looks to
bring the chance for showers and storms back into the area Wednesday
into Thursday. With ridging aloft Tuesday, high temperatures are
expected to trend back into the 80s, but it`s not expected to feel
too humid as dew points remain in the upper 50s and low 60s, but
they will be trending up Wednesday ahead of the front. Wednesday is
expected to also expected to have highs in the 80s, and perhaps
nearing 90 degrees in a few places, before cooler air moves in again
for the second half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Valley fog will be fairly dense at ELM this morning given the
rainfall yesterday, and fog may creep up into BGM as well.
Otherwise, expect mainly VFR conditions, though some MVFR
ceilings will begin to develop across northern areas (SYR and
RME) towards dawn, along with a few showers.

Timing of showers and thunderstorms is a little uncertain today,
other than the normal diurnal trend being favored. Thunder is
most likely at ITH, ELM and especially BGM and AVP this
afternoon and evening. Not wanting to blanket too large an area
over too large a time frame, just mentioned VCTS at BGM and AVP
for the time being, with no TEMPO groups.

Showers and thunderstorms will diminish during the evening
hours. Areas of fog are likely, especially where it rains, but
a tighter pressure gradient may reduce potential outside of the
most sheltered valleys.

Outlook...

Late Saturday Night through Sunday Morning...Restrictions
possible in valley fog, especially ELM.

Sunday Afternoon into Monday Morning...Widespread showers and
thunderstorms Sunday with associated restrictions, mainly to
visibility. Lingering restrictions possible in showers early
Monday.

Monday afternoon through Wednesday...VFR conditions likely.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for PAZ038>040-043-044-047-
     048-072.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for NYZ022>025-055-056-062.
     Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for NYZ062.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPH
NEAR TERM...MPH
SHORT TERM...DK/MWG
LONG TERM...DK/MWG
AVIATION...BJT/MJM/MPH