203
FXUS61 KBGM 131829
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
229 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure and dry conditions will continue today. A cold
frontal passage on Friday will bring a chance of showers and
strong to possibly severe thunderstorms. High pressure builds
into the region with summer-like weather this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
920 am update...

A large high is off the coast providing us with dry warmer
weather today. High clouds are across the area ahead of the cold
front. Increased cloud cover and adjusted hourly temperature and
dewpoints today.

315 AM Update...

Some valley fog has developed for mainly areas east of I-81,
where there were some clouds hanging around yesterday and had
cleared out in the evening. Fog is expected to dissipate soon
after sunrise. Thursday will be warmer and dry with high
pressure sticking around for one more day. Highs in the low to
mid 80s expected.

Chances for rain showers and strong to possibly severe storms
remain for Friday as a front approaches. Instability parameters
look similar with every model run; 0-6 km shear remains around
50 knots, with CAPE values between 500-1000 J/kg. These showers
and storms appears to progress quickly, with storm development
likely to occur in the morning over Central NY, move south and
eastward through the afternoon, and mostly out of the area by
the evening hours. The main threat with any storm development,
whether strong to severe, will be wind, with possible hail with
convective initiation before these showers and storms form more
of a line heading south and eastward.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
230 PM Update...

Precip will push east of the area by daybreak Saturday, with
upper level ridging and surface high pressure bringing a spell
of nice weather for the entire weekend. Northerly flow will keep
temperatures in the lower to middle-70s, perhaps creeping up
into the upper-70s in the Wyoming Valley. As high pressure
settles east of the area Sunday, southerly flow will begin to
bring warmer temperatures to the area, with highs climbing into
the upper-70s to lower-80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
230 PM Update...

The warming trend established over the weekend will steepen
rapidly next week as upper level ridging over the Southeastern
CONUS builds northwards. Both the deterministic GFS and ECMWF
park the subtropical ridge over the NY/PA border by Wednesday,
with 500 mb heights ranging from 598 to a whopping 600 dam. Very
hot and humid conditions continue to look likely, especially
Tue through at least Thursday next week. The main question is
whether or not showers and thunderstorms can break the heat on
any given day. The GFS is notably "wetter" in terms of scattered
QPF, while the ECMWF is much drier. Made few changes to
existing Slight Chance PoPs, though the drier solutions look
more likely heading towards Wednesday with the ridge directly
overhead.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
130 pm update...

VFR conditions expected through this TAF package. A cold front
moves through from north to south late tonight into Friday
afternoon. Some guidance suggests MVFR restrictions in scattered
showers and maybe a thunderstorm. Ceilings will drop to around
5k ft.

Southwest winds this afternoon will be 10kts with gusts up to 20
kts. Tonight winds will be less than 8 kts. Winds shift to west
Friday at 5 to 10 kts.

Outlook...

Friday night...Restrictions possible in showers and isolated to
scattered thunderstorms, highest chances Friday afternoon.

Saturday through Monday morning...mainly VFR.

Monday afternoon through Tuesday...Restrictions possible in
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL/TAC
SHORT TERM...MPH
LONG TERM...MPH
AVIATION...TAC