340
FXUS61 KBGM 210754
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
354 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Chances for rain showers and afternoon thunderstorms expected
Saturday afternoon as a disturbance enters western portions of
Central New York. Thunderstorm chances are highest for areas
west of Interstate 81. Dry conditions return on Sunday, but more
showers will be possible heading into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
345 AM Update...

A shortwave over the Great Lakes will bring chances for rain
showers and thunderstorms into Central NY and portions of NE PA
this afternoon. As it moves into our area, it quickly loses
energy heading into Saturday night. Best chances for rain
showers and a few thunderstorms are for areas west of I-81.
There may be some showers and storms that produce locally more
intense downpours, especially areas west of I-81. High
temperatures of mid 70s to low 80s expected for Saturday.

Dry conditions return Sunday, with high temperatures a little
cooler than Saturday (low 70s to high 70s), thanks to the cooler
origins of the shortwave bringing down slightly cooler air from
Canada.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Persistent troughing off the New England coast will begin pushing
east Sunday night, allowing a sharp upper level ridge axis to drift
east of the Appalachians towards New England by Monday morning.
Meanwhile, surface high pressure will extend from northern New
England south along the coastal plain.

As the upper ridge axis shifts east, a belt of more active westerly
flow will setup across the region, with weak shortwave troughs set
to roll across NY/PA Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Initially, the
surface high will hold strong, keeping precip to our west, but PoPs
in the form of light rain showers look to slowly work into areas
west of I-81 by Monday afternoon, overspreading the area Monday
night before slowly tapering off Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

The overall upper level pattern will amplify as ridging builds over
the southeastern U.S., and deep troughing carves out over the Upper
Midwest. Another shortwave trough looks to roll through the area
Tuesday afternoon and evening, with another bout of rain showers and
possibly a few thunderstorms. The ridge looks to build along the
coast later in the week, as a cutoff low develops over the mid-
Mississippi valley. This will keep us under an active southwest flow
aloft, with a continued stream of embedded disturbances keeping the
risk of rain showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through the
remainder of the period. Rainfall looks to be light, possibly
moderate over some sections towards Thursday, but no hazardous
weather is expected. Temperatures look to hover near seasonal
norms.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period other than
some valley fog at KELM in the several hours up to and
including dawn. Increasing high clouds, along with milder
forecast minimum temperatures, will tend to limit valley fog
production compared to prior nights. It will take longer to get
going at KELM, but most likely scenario is that it will still
ultimately happen even if delayed by several hours. Conditions
are expected to deteriorate to IFR or lower by 10Z. However,
actually reaching to airport minimums will be a challenge.
Whatever valley fog we get will mix out quickly after dawn,
leaving mainly VFR conditions areawide during the day Saturday.
Showers and a chance of thunder may occur prior to 00Z Sunday
west of KSYR- KBGM-KAVP; especially KELM and perhaps KITH.

.Outlook...

Saturday night through early Sunday morning...Scattered showers
and chance of thunder with associated restrictions possible,
especially for ELM-ITH-AVP. After rain ends, shallow deck of
clouds may cause ceiling restrictions for same terminals and
perhaps KBGM into early Sunday.

Sunday midmorning through midday Monday...Mainly VFR.

Late Monday through Wednesday...Multiple chances for showers
and isolated thunderstorms with associated potential
restrictions as disturbances pass through the region.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...MPH
LONG TERM...MPH
AVIATION...KL