944
FXUS61 KBGM 240846
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
446 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Relief from the heat arrives behind a cold front today, though
scattered rain showers will affect much of central New York
through the afternoon. Temperatures will remain in the upper
60s to middle 70s today, and will warm back to the 80s on
Tuesday. Another cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms
back to the area on Wednesday. Dry and fair weather will prevail
Thursday and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
4 AM Update...
A cold front has pushed east of the area this morning, bringing
breezy west to northwest winds and lowering temperatures and
dewpoints across the region. In other words, relief from the
heat and humidity is here.

However, a rather sharp upper level trough will swing through
the region today, as an associated surface low moves across
northern NY. This will bring plenty of clouds and showers to the
area, though Central NY will be favored for shower coverage.
Partial clearing will push into the Finger Lakes and areas
roughly west of I-81 by early afternoon, with showers pulling
out of eastern areas by evening. Enough weak instability will
develop for some isolated and weak embedded thunderstorms,
especially as the trough axis moves through.

Surface high pressure builds in overnight, and light winds/clear
skies will be ideal for radiational cooling. Temperatures will
drop into the 50s. Despite the lower humidity, valley fog is
expected to develop, especially along the Susquehanna River in
NY and its upper tributaries, where showers will be most
prevalent today.

Fair weather and warmer temperatures can be expected on Tuesday
as high pressure settles east of the area, and southwest flow
returns. Highs will be in the mid to upper-80s, but dewpoints
will be in 50s, yielding heat index values at or slightly below
ambient temps.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
345 AM Update...

The ridge breaks down Tuesday night, bringing zonal flow aloft
and SW flow in the low levels. Warm moist air returns to the
region thanks to this pattern, with overnight lows only falling
into the mid to upper 60s. A weak shortwave looks to push into
the area overnight, bringing a chance for rain showers and
isolated thunderstorms from Oneida county to the Finger Lakes.
Confidence in the showers developing is low given a lack of deep
moisture and the surface high still strong enough to influence
weather of the CWA. Best chance for precip will be north of the
Thruway, but showers across CNY cannot be ruled out.

The next chance for severe weather arrives Wednesday afternoon.
A positively tilted trough will dig into the Mid-Atlantic from
the Great Lakes during the late overnight and morning hours. The
path and tilt of this trough will keep winds mostly WSW over the
area, not allowing the hottest air from the south to make it
into the CWA. Rather, it moves into the Mid- Atlantic and up the
coast into Southern New England. The Twin Tiers, NEPA and the
southern Catskills will still climb into the upper 80s to low
90s with dewpoints in the mid 60s. This allows for CAPE to climb
into the 2000-2500 j/kg range over this area with 1000-1500 j/kg
to the north. Bulk shear values are also modeled strong, between
35-45kts out of the SW. A mid level shortwave will be the main
driver of afternoon showers and storms and how far south this
feature is as it crosses the CWA will determine the area with
the highest chances for severe weather. Currently, guidance has
it crossing central PA into southern NY. This puts the
Twin Tiers, NEPA and southern Catskills in the severe weather
Goldilocks zone. A shift north or south of the shortwave would
thus move this zone according, so we will be paying close
attention to it.

Shower and thunderstorm chances remain through the overnight
hours as the cold front associated with the trough moves through
the area. This is another feature we will be watching closely as
guidance has sped up its arrOnly minor changes to the previous discussion below. Another
cold front with our next chance of showers and thunderstorms
should move through next weekend.


A strong ridge will build in behind the cold front passing
through the area Wednesday night/Thursday morning. NW flow
through the day on Thursday will push drier air into the region,
with dewpoints falling through the day, bottoming out in the low
50s with temps in the 70s. The ridge axis slides east of us on
Friday, warming us back up for the end of the work week and the
weekend. Rain chances should hold off till Saturday as temps
rise back into the 80s.
ival into the CWA over the past couple of days and if it can
sync up a little better with the shortwave ahead of it, severe
chances will increase across the area. With the front pushing
through during the early overnight hours, temps will fall into
the mid to upper 50s over NY and low to mid 60s over PA.

A strong ridge will build into the region Thursday, bringing NW
flow and a shot of Canadian air, keeping temperatures cool and
skies mostly clear. Highs will be in the 70s, with very low
humidity. The high pressure center moves right over the CWA
Thursday night, allowing for efficient radiational cooling that
push temps down into the the mid 40s to low 50s.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
400 AM Update...

High pressure holds on through Friday, bringing
a very nice end to the work week. The weekend sees a return to
active weather unfortunately as a positively tilted upper level
trough moves into the region from the Great Lakes. A warm front
and shortwave pushing through Saturday followed by a cold front
on Sunday will allow for rain and thunderstorm chances through
the weekend.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Lower ceilings will wrap into the area from the north and
northwest through the early morning hours, with MVFR ceilings
working into most Central NY terminals, while avoiding AVP.
Scattered showers will develop later this morning and while the
odd rumble of thunder isn`t impossible later today, chances are
too low to mention in the TAFs. Instead, carried TEMPO groups
with vis restrictions for heavier showers.

Lower ceilings will erode late in the afternoon, and high
pressure will bring drier conditions and clearing skies through
the overnight hours. Some valley fog is possible tonight/Tuesday
morning in areas that receive the most showers today, but this
will likely not include ELM.

Winds will be a little breezy overnight and through much of the
day Tuesday, generally NW 12 to 15 knots with gusts 20-25 knots
at times.

Outlook...

Late Monday Night through Tuesday...VFR likely, except possible
valley fog Tuesday morning, likely staying outside of TAF
sites.

Tuesday Night through Wednesday Night...Restrictions possible
in scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday through Friday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPH
NEAR TERM...MPH
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...BTL/MPH