Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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746 FXUS61 KBGM 231756 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 156 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered rain showers will move through Central New York and Northeast Pennsylvania today, lasting through tonight. Relatively active pattern continues this week with a chance of rain showers every day. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... 1230 PM Update... Updated pops using a blend of NAM Nest, HRRR and the official forecast to account for the latest changes in the models. Also made manual tweaks to pops using radar imagery to show steady showers over the south western portion of our area. Adjusted temperatures and dew points as well using current observations, otherwise remaining forecast is on track. 930 AM Update... Rain showers have made it further along than anticipated, therefore blended in some of the HRRR into the forecast to extend showers into the eastern portion of the region. Otherwise made tweaks to temperatures and dew points using current observations. No other changes needed at this time. 705 AM Update... No major updates to the near-term forecast. Adjusted precipitation chances as rain showers move into the area from the west. 340 AM Update... A weak shortwave will bring rain showers across Central NY and NE PA today and through tonight, with accompanying gusty southeast winds. Showers will progress west to east, reaching areas east of I-81 by late morning/early afternoon. Rainfall amounts will likely stay under a quarter of an inch, but there may be some brief, more intense rainfall with some showers. Temperatures become more seasonable today, expected to be in the high 50s to mid 60s. Overnight temperatures will be the same as it has been the past few nights; mid to high 50s. Tuesday temperatures increase slightly to the low to high 60s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... 410 AM Update... An increasingly amplified upper level pattern will take shape through mid-week as a deep trough cuts off into a closed low over the mid-Mississippi Valley Tuesday night, while an upper level ridge axis extends across the east coast. We`ll be in active and increasingly moist southwesterly flow aloft, with several embedded disturbances bringing rounds of showers and isolated thunderstorms. Surface high pressure over New England will continue to feed drier air in the low levels from the east and northeast. This will keep precip chances highest across areas west of I-81 before midnight Tuesday night, but thereafter the moisture wins out, and high PoPs look to overspread the area through Wednesday morning. Showers will become more widely scattered with dry spells early Wednesday, but will increase towards the afternoon and overnight hours. High temperatures will run a few degrees below normal Wednesday, with highs mostly in the 60s area-wide. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 410 AM Update... Another complex blocking pattern takes shape for the end of the week, with our cutoff low over the mid-Mississippi Valley, and ridging off the southeast U.S. coast expected to determine the eventual path of a potential tropical cyclone in the Gulf of Mexico. But upper level ridging over the western U.S. looks to build across the Upper Midwest, north of the closed low, with the tropical system eventually phasing with the closed low. Some showers will be departing the area Thursday, after which the blocking pattern looks to keep our area dry through the weekend. Caution is urged given the complex pattern and interactions at play, but there`s fairly good model agreement in keeping precip with the tropical system and closed upper low well to our southwest. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Isolated to scattered rain showers continue to move through the region this afternoon and evening. As a result MVFR to Fuel Alt restrictions have expanded over most terminals with possible IFR ceilings at ELM/BGM. RME/SYR will alternate between VFR and MVFR ceilings for most of the period. Model guidance hints at fog formation tonight at ELM/BGM, but confidence is low at this time, therefore a tempo group was used. Some isolated showers may linger overnight along with Fuel Alt restrictions at most sites and IFR restrictions at ELM. Pessimistic ceilings will persist at most terminals through the end of the period with exceptions at RME/SYR. .Outlook... Monday Night Through Tuesday...Restrictions possible with showers. Wednesday through Thursday...Generally, unsettled with VFR ceilings and occasional flight restrictions possible in passing showers. Friday and Saturday... VFR conditions are possible. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KL NEAR TERM...ES/JTC/KL SHORT TERM...MPH LONG TERM...MPH AVIATION...ES